Match Analysis: Leon Edwards vs Carlos Prates – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 15, 2025
- Time: 3:45 AM UTC
- Location: New York
Game Overview
UFC 322 welterweight main card matchup between Leon Edwards and Carlos Prates. Edwards is transitioning from grappler-heavy opponents to face Prates, a striking-focused knockout artist. This represents a stylistic shift for Edwards and a significant test of his striking defense against a dangerous one-punch KO threat.
Key Factors to Consider
- Leon Edwards has faced primarily grappler and wrestler opponents in recent fights, requiring extensive takedown defense preparation. Carlos Prates is characterized as a one-punch knockout artist with exceptional striking power. Edwards expressed excitement about returning to three-round format after fighting primarily five-round bouts, suggesting this sprint-paced structure favors his conditioning and explosive style.
- No prior matchup history between these fighters.
- No injuries reported for either fighter.
- The fight takes place in New York, Edwards' preferred location with home-crowd advantage elements. Edwards expressed desire to return to UK fights in March-April, indicating strong motivation for a dominant victory to secure title-contender status. The three-round format (vs. Edwards' recent five-round pattern) creates a tactical variable favoring faster-paced, high-output fighters.
- Edwards is explicitly targeting a knockout finish to establish himself as a legitimate title contender in the welterweight division. Prates seeks to derail Edwards' title trajectory by capitalizing on his striking advantage. Edwards' stated eagerness to 'take out Carlos' and pursue international fights suggests high motivation for decisive victory.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Prates -185 / Edwards +160 | Leon Edwards | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
| Spread | Prates -3.5 (-110) / Edwards +3.5 (-120) | Edwards +3.5 | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 (-145) / Under 2.5 (+110) | Under 2.5 Rounds | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Leon Edwards 61% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 9% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Leon Edwards at 61% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 38.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Leon Edwards wins by decision or submission in a competitive three-round affair. Despite Prates' knockout power, Edwards' superior grappling range, footwork discipline, and conditioning advantage in sprint-format fights provide edge in controlling fight tempo and accumulating points across all three rounds.
Predicted Score: Edwards 29-28 or 30-27 (Decision Victory)