Match Analysis: Erick Rosa vs Kyosuke Takami – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-30
- Time: 8:00 AM UTC
- Location: Yokohama Buntai, Yokohama, Japan
Game Overview
The WBA World Light Flyweight title fight features Erick Rosa defending against Kyosuke Takami in a 12-round battle at Yokohama Buntai. Rosa, aged 25, holds an 8-0 undefeated record with 2 KOs, representing experience and ring maturity with 79 professional rounds. Takami, 23 years old, also undefeated at 9-0 with a high 78% knockout rate (7 KOs) over 38 rounds, brings power and a height advantage of 2 inches. Both fighters use orthodox stances, with Takami highly ranked by WBA (#1) and The Ring (#10), while Rosa is ranked #8 by The Ring in the junior flyweight division. The clash is expected to pit Rosa's experience and resilience against Takami's power and youth advantage.
Key Factors to Consider
- Rosa has a record of 8-0 with 2 KOs over 79 rounds, showing durability and technical skill. Takami is 9-0 with 7 KOs, indicating strong finishing power but less ring experience (38 rounds). Takami has a significant power edge, demonstrated by a 78% KO rate vs Rosa's 25%.
- This will be the first professional matchup between Erick Rosa and Kyosuke Takami, so no direct head-to-head data exists.
- No reported injuries or health issues for either fighter leading into the match.
- The fight takes place in Yokohama, Japan, Takami's home country, potentially favoring him with crowd support and familiar conditions. Rosa travels internationally, which may impact acclimatization.
- Rosa will be motivated to defend his WBA title and maintain the undefeated streak, consolidating his reputation. Takami aims to capture the championship and capitalize on his rising profile and home advantage.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Erick Rosa: 450, Kyosuke Takami: -700 | Kyosuke Takami to win | ★★★★☆ 85% |
| Over/under | Over 10.5 rounds: -140, Under 10.5 rounds: 110 | Under 10.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Erick Rosa -7% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 10.5 22% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 10.5 at 22% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 19.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Kyosuke Takami is favored to win due to his significant knockout power, top WBA ranking, and home advantage. However, Erick Rosa's superior experience and endurance could enable him to withstand early pressure and extend the fight to later rounds, potentially winning on points or causing an upset if Takami fails to finish early.
Predicted Score: Kyosuke Takami wins by 8th round KO or unanimous decision if the fight goes full distance