Erick Rosa vs. Kyosuke Takami Prediction Boxing

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Match Analysis: Erick Rosa vs Kyosuke Takami – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-07-30
  • Time: 8:00 AM UTC
  • Location: Yokohama Buntai, Yokohama, Japan

Game Overview

Erick Rosa defends his WBA Jr Flyweight title against Kyosuke Takami in a 12-round bout at Yokohama Buntai. Rosa holds the championship for 7 months with a recent victory, while Takami is a strong challenger fighting at home.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Rosa exhibits a slightly higher recent win prediction at 53% with a more aggressive punching rate (554 punches per fight) compared to Takami (364), but Takami compensates with decent accuracy and home advantage.
  • No direct past matchup data available; both fighters are undefeated or possess strong records making this a high-stakes, even contest.
  • No significant injuries reported for either fighter leading into this bout.
  • The fight is on Takami's home soil in Japan, with strong promotional backing and substantial motivation for the local fighter. Rosa is facing a motivated title defense in hostile territory.
  • Rosa is defending his first title and aiming to solidify his reign, while Takami seeks to claim the championship on home ground, giving both fighters high motivation.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Erick Rosa: +450, Kyosuke Takami: -700 Kyosuke Takami ★★★★☆ 75%
Spread Takami -3.5: -150, Rosa +3.5: +130 Takami -3.5 ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under Over 10.5 rounds: -140, Under 10.5 rounds: +110 Over 10.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Kyosuke Takami -9%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 10.5 3%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 10.5 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Kyosuke Takami wins by decision

Predicted Score: Kyosuke Takami wins by unanimous decision after 12 rounds


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