Match Analysis: Kyle Pufahl vs Steve Collins – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-21
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: Seneca Niagara Falls Resort and Casino, Niagara Falls, New York, USA
Game Overview
This lightweight bout at LFA 223 features New England's Kyle Pufahl (6-2) against Illinois' undefeated Steve Collins (5-0). Pufahl is a natural finisher with four first-round KO/TKO wins, but recently showed resilience by overcoming a rib injury and winning a decision over Kevin Carrier. Collins is known for his relentless pace and highlight-reel slam KO at LFA 210, with finishes in two of his last three fights. Both fighters are on the rise, with Pufahl seeking a breakthrough and Collins aiming to maintain his undefeated record.
Key Factors to Consider
- Pufahl has a strong striking record, with 4 of his 6 wins coming by KO/TKO, all in the first round. He recently went the distance against Kevin Carrier, showing improved durability and adaptability. Collins is 5-0 with finishes in 2 of his last 3 fights, including a spectacular slam KO. He is known for his relentless pace and pressure.
- No previous fights between Pufahl and Collins. This is their first meeting.
- Pufahl suffered a popped rib in his last fight but fought through it and won by decision. No reported injuries for Collins.
- The fight takes place in a neutral venue, Niagara Falls, New York. Both fighters are well-rested and have been preparing specifically for this matchup.
- Pufahl is motivated to prove himself after overcoming injury and wants to secure a high-profile win to boost his career. Collins is motivated to maintain his undefeated record and continue his rise in the lightweight division.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Kyle Pufahl: 450, Steve Collins: -600 | Steve Collins | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 1.5: -145, Under 1.5: 125 | Over 1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Steve Collins -4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 1.5 10% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Steve Collins is favored due to his undefeated record and recent highlight-reel performances. However, Pufahl's striking power and recent resilience make him a dangerous opponent. The fight is likely to be competitive, with Collins having a slight edge in terms of overall performance and momentum.
Predicted Score: Steve Collins wins by decision or TKO in the second round