Match Analysis: Benoit Saint-Denis vs Kyle Prepolec – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-10
- Time: 2:15 AM UTC
- Location: Bell Centre, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
Game Overview
Benoit Saint-Denis is set to face Kyle Prepolec at UFC 315. Saint-Denis, ranked #13 in the lightweight division, was initially scheduled to fight Joel Alvarez before Prepolec stepped in as a last-minute replacement.
Key Factors to Consider
- Benoit Saint-Denis has a strong background with a 13-3 record, while Kyle Prepolec is riding a three-fight win streak after being released from the UFC in 2020.
- No previous head-to-head matchups between the two fighters.
- No significant injury reports for either fighter at this time.
- Prepolec is fighting on short notice, which may impact his performance. Saint-Denis benefits from fighting on home soil.
- Both fighters are highly motivated; Saint-Denis wants to maintain his ranking, and Prepolec aims to prove himself in the UFC.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Benoit Saint-Denis -1050, Kyle Prepolec +675 | Benoit Saint-Denis wins | ★★★★☆ 85% |
| Over/under | Over 1.5 rounds +145, Under 1.5 rounds -188 | Under 1.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Benoit Saint-Denis 4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 1.5 -8% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Benoit Saint-Denis at 4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 42.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Benoit Saint-Denis is favored due to his higher ranking and more extensive UFC experience.
Predicted Score: Benoit Saint-Denis wins via stoppage in the first round.