Match Analysis: Kyle Nelson vs Matt Frevola – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-18
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: TBD
Game Overview
Kyle Nelson and Matt Frevola face off in a UFC lightweight bout anticipated to be competitive with evenly matched odds and a slight edge to Frevola based on recent form and activity.
Key Factors to Consider
- Matt Frevola is slightly favored due to a more active recent fight schedule and a tendency toward decision wins. Kyle Nelson has solid grappling but less recent activity.
- No previous head-to-head matchups; both fighters bring contrasting styles—Nelson with grappling and Frevola with wrestling and pressure striking.
- No reported injuries for either fighter entering the bout.
- Fight is taking place at a neutral venue with standard conditions. No travel or altitude concerns known.
- Frevola appears motivated to reclaim momentum after a recent mixed record, while Nelson aims to prove himself against a higher-ranked opponent.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Kyle Nelson: -110, Matt Frevola: -110 | Matt Frevola | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
| Spread | Kyle Nelson: 3.5 -155, Matt Frevola: -3.5 115 | Matt Frevola -3.5 | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
| Over/under | Over: 2.5 130, Under: 2.5 -166 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 64% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Matt Frevola -6% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 -1% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Matt Frevola to win by decision
Predicted Score: Matt Frevola wins by decision after 3 rounds