Match Analysis: Gerald Meerschaert vs Kyle Daukaus – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-15
• Time: 9:00 PM UTC
• Location: Madison Square Garden, New York City

Game Overview

The upcoming UFC 322 middleweight bout features Gerald Meerschaert (37-20-0) versus Kyle Daukaus (16-4-0, 1 NC), both southpaw fighters with well-rounded skill sets. Daukaus, aged 32, is slightly taller at 6'2" with a 76" reach, while Meerschaert, aged 37, is 6'1" with a 77" reach. Daukaus is favored heavily in betting markets, reflecting a perception of higher skill, especially in grappling and submission attempts, though Meerschaert brings experience and a solid takedown defense to the cage.

Key Factors to Consider

• Kyle Daukaus maintains an effective striking average of 3.25 significant strikes per minute at a 53% accuracy, along with rigorous submission attempts (1.9 tries per 15 minutes). Gerald Meerschaert averages slightly fewer significant strikes per minute (3.02) with 45% accuracy and attempts fewer submissions (1.4 per 3 rounds). Meerschaert succeeds in stopping 42% of opponent takedown attempts but only completes takedowns on 30% of his attempts. Daukaus offers a higher rate of finishes and consistent fight control.
• No previous fight between Meerschaert and Daukaus has been recorded, making this their first encounter. The matchup pits a younger, highly active submission grappler against a veteran with deep experience in the UFC middleweight division.
• No reported injuries affecting either fighter ahead of the bout have been noted.
• The bout takes place in Madison Square Garden, a neutral but iconic venue, with no significant external disruptions or conditions reported. Both fighters have had normal fight preparations.
• Kyle Daukaus appears motivated to prove himself by securing a first-round finish as indicated in recent interviews, showing confidence and aggressive mindset. Gerald Meerschaert brings veteran experience and will aim to withstand the early pressure and capitalize on any openings later in the fight.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Gerald Meerschaert: 330, Kyle Daukaus: -425	Kyle Daukaus to win	★★★★☆ 85%
Spread	Gerald Meerschaert +7.5: 115, Kyle Daukaus -7.5: -155	Kyle Daukaus covers the -7.5 spread	★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under	Over 1.5 rounds: -175, Under 1.5 rounds: 135	Fight goes over 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Kyle Daukaus -5%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 1.5 2%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Kyle Daukaus is favored to win based on superior striking efficiency, higher submission rate, and betting odds. The fight likely ends via decision or submission in favor of Daukaus, with Meerschaert potentially extending the fight but facing difficulties imposing his game plan.

Predicted Score: Kyle Daukaus wins by submission or decision in round 2 or 3

3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Angela Hill vs. Fatima Kline Prediction	Fatima Kline Win	-520	★★★★☆ 78% (78%)
Gerald Meerschaert vs. Kyle Daukaus Prediction	Gerald Meerschaert 7.5	115	★★★★☆ 75% (75%)
Jawany Scott vs. Michelangelo Lupoli Prediction	Jawany Scott Win	-440	★★★★☆ 75% (75%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: +215

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $62.92

Match Analysis: Michel Pereira vs Kyle Daukaus – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-23
• Time: 8:25 AM UTC
• Location: UFC Fight Night 257 (venue not specified)

Game Overview

Michel Pereira and Kyle Daukaus face off in a middleweight bout with contrasting styles. Pereira is known for his dynamic and striking-heavy approach, while Daukaus relies on grappling and submissions. This matchup will test Pereira's striking defense and grappling against Daukaus' ground game and fighting control.

Key Factors to Consider

• Pereira holds a record of 31-13-0 with 11 KO wins and 9 submissions; he lands 4.5 significant strikes per minute with 52% accuracy but absorbs 4.33 strikes per minute. Daukaus stands at 15-4-0 with 1 no contest, has a lower striking rate of 3.22 per minute with the same 52% accuracy but better strike defense at 2.94 absorbed per minute. Daukaus averages more takedowns (2.12) than Pereira (1.14) but with lower accuracy. Daukaus also has a higher submission average (1.9 per 15 min) compared to Pereira's 0.7.
• No previous fights between Michel Pereira and Kyle Daukaus; 0% history and no wins or draws between them.
• No reported injuries or external issues affecting either fighter leading into the match.
• Pereira has an orthodox stance versus Daukaus’ southpaw, possibly influencing striking dynamics. Daukaus recently replaced Marco Tulio, suggesting possible adjustment time. Both fighters recently experienced losses, adding unpredictability.
• Both fighters are motivated by the need to rebound from recent losses and improve UFC rankings. Pereira’s dynamic flair versus Daukaus’ grappling credentials sets a competitive motivation for dominance in their respective specialties.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Michel Pereira: -260, Kyle Daukaus: 220	Michel Pereira	★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under	Over 1.5: -185, Under 1.5: 155	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Michel Pereira -0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 53%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 53% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 34.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Michel Pereira is favored due to superior striking volume and accuracy, coupled with decent takedown defense, despite Daukaus’ grappling prowess. The prediction favors Pereira winning by decision or late stoppage with an emphasis on striking control.

Predicted Score: Michel Pereira wins by decision or TKO in round 2 or 3