Match Analysis: Krystian Kaszubowski vs Dawid Kuczmarski – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-15
- Time: 3:00 PM UTC
- Location: Netto Arena, Szczecin
Game Overview
Krystian Kaszubowski vs Dawid Kuczmarski is a highly anticipated matchup in the KSW 112 main card, set for November 15, 2025, in Szczecin. Both fighters compete in the 170 lb (waga półśrednia) division. Kaszubowski is a seasoned veteran and former title contender, currently ranked #10 in the division, while Kuczmarski is an undefeated rising star with a perfect 7-0 record. The bout is expected to be a clash of experience versus youth, with significant implications for the division’s rankings.
Key Factors to Consider
- Krystian Kaszubowski has a record of 12-5 (1NC, 3 KO, 1 Sub) and is known for his technical grappling and striking. He recently defeated Matúš Juráček in February 2025. Dawid Kuczmarski is undefeated at 7-0 (1 Sub), with notable wins over Morgann Gbolou and Michał Guziki. His aggressive style and finishing ability have earned him bonuses in previous KSW appearances.
- This is the first professional meeting between Kaszubowski and Kuczmarski. No prior amateur or professional encounters have been recorded.
- No public reports of injuries or health concerns for either fighter as of the latest updates.
- The fight takes place in Szczecin, Poland, which may provide a slight home advantage for Kaszubowski. The event is part of KSW 112, a major promotion with high visibility and media coverage.
- Kaszubowski is motivated to reassert himself as a top contender after a recent win. Kuczmarski aims to prove he belongs among the elite and potentially challenge for a title shot with a victory.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Krystian Kaszubowski: -135, Dawid Kuczmarski: -105 | Krystian Kaszubowski | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | Krystian Kaszubowski -1.5: +120, Dawid Kuczmarski +1.5: -140 | Krystian Kaszubowski -1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds: -110, Under 2.5 rounds: -110 | Over 2.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Krystian Kaszubowski 1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Krystian Kaszubowski at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 1.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Krystian Kaszubowski is favored due to his experience and higher ranking, but Dawid Kuczmarski’s undefeated record and finishing ability make him a dangerous opponent. The fight is likely to be competitive, with Kaszubowski’s technical skills giving him a slight edge. A decision win for Kaszubowski is the most probable outcome, but a finish by Kuczmarski cannot be ruled out.
Predicted Score: Krystian Kaszubowski wins by decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)