Match Analysis: Irina Alekseeva vs Klaudia Syguła – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-21
- Time: 5:00 PM UTC
- Location: Baku Crystal Hall, Baku, Azerbaijan
Game Overview
The bantamweight bout between Irina Alekseeva and Klaudia Sygula at UFC on ABC 8 in Baku features two evenly matched orthodox fighters standing at 5'8" and competing at 135 lbs. Alekseeva brings a record of 5-2 with a slightly higher significant strikes landed per minute (3.84) and better strike accuracy (43%) compared to Sygula's 1.89 strikes per minute and 37% accuracy. Defensively, Alekseeva allows fewer significant strikes (3.55 vs. 6.00) and has a higher strike defense rate (48% vs. 36%), indicating a durability edge. Both fighters recently lost to the same opponent, Melissa Mullins, but maintain solid career records, making this a competitive match-up.
Key Factors to Consider
- Alekseeva has shown consistency in applying pressure and striking volume with a solid defense, while Sygula tends to have a more cautious striking output but maintains resilience. Both fighters have comparable experience with 7 and 8 total fights respectively.
- No prior head-to-head bouts exist between Alekseeva and Sygula, making this matchup their first encounter.
- No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the bout, suggesting both will be at full competitive strength.
- The fight takes place in Baku, Azerbaijan, which may offer slight home advantage to Alekseeva given her European background and the event location, although neither fighter is from Azerbaijan.
- Both fighters seek redemption following recent losses to the same opponent, Melissa Mullins, raising their motivation to rebound strongly and improve their UFC standing.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Irina Alekseeva: -275, Klaudia Sygula: 235 | Irina Alekseeva | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | Alekseeva -1.5: -140, Sygula +1.5: 120 | Alekseeva -1.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds: -135, Under 2.5 rounds: 105 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Irina Alekseeva -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 23% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 23% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given Alekseeva's superior striking volume, accuracy, and defensive metrics, combined with her experience and slight home-region advantage, the prediction favors Irina Alekseeva to win by decision or technical striking dominance.
Predicted Score: Irina Alekseeva wins by unanimous decision, 3-0 rounds