Match Analysis: Maria Guedez Jr vs Kiya O'Sullivan – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-26
- Time: 4:00 PM UTC
- Location: Zénith Nantes Métropole, Nantes, France
Game Overview
The MMA match between Maria Guedez Jr and Kiya O'Sullivan is scheduled for September 26, 2025, at the Zénith Nantes Métropole arena in Nantes, France. Both fighters are debuting their professional careers in the Women's Strawweight (115 lbs) division under PFL Europe 3. The contest format is 3 rounds of 5 minutes each. Kiya O'Sullivan is favored by bookmakers with moneyline odds of -200 compared to Maria Guedez Jr's +160.
Key Factors to Consider
- Both Maria Guedez Jr and Kiya O'Sullivan hold official records of 0-0-0, indicating this will be their professional MMA debut. Their youth and equal weight category suggest comparable physical preparation, although Kiya is slightly younger (22 vs 26) and 1 inch shorter, which may influence fighting style.
- There are no previous fights between Maria Guedez Jr and Kiya O'Sullivan, so no direct head-to-head data is available to analyze.
- No available data indicates recent or ongoing injuries for either fighter.
- The fight is set in Nantes, France, neutral ground for both Venezuela's Guedez Jr and Ireland's O'Sullivan. No known external factors such as travel issues or extreme weather conditions are reported.
- With both fighters making professional debuts in the prominent PFL Europe league, motivation is expected to be high on both sides. The opportunity to establish a strong career start in a high-profile organization likely adds competitive drive.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Kiya O'Sullivan: -200, Maria Guedez Jr: 160 | Kiya O'Sullivan win | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | Kiya O'Sullivan -1.5 rounds: -150, Maria Guedez Jr +1.5 rounds: +130 | Kiya O'Sullivan -1.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | over 2.5 rounds: -110, under 2.5 rounds: -110 | Over 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Kiya O'Sullivan -13% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Kiya O'Sullivan at -13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Kiya O'Sullivan is favored to win the bout given bookmaker odds and typical expectations for debut fighter performances. However, the lack of professional fight history from both sides introduces uncertainty. The predicted outcome is a victory for Kiya O'Sullivan by decision, considering her slightly lower odds and presumed readiness.
Predicted Score: Kiya O'Sullivan win via unanimous decision after 3 rounds