Match Analysis: King Green vs Carlos Diego Ferreira – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-16
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: United Center, Chicago, IL

Game Overview

King Green (32-17-1) and Carlos Diego Ferreira (19-6) face off in a lightweight MMA bout at UFC 319. Green is a veteran with strong striking accuracy and defense; Ferreira offers a slightly longer reach and has recently intensified training for this fight.

Key Factors to Consider

• King Green lands 6.40 significant strikes per min at 52% accuracy, conceding 3.72 strikes per min; Ferreira lands 4.82 strikes per min at 40% accuracy, conceding 3.46 strikes per min. Ferreira’s recent form includes a loss followed by focused training changes.
• No previous recorded bouts between King Green and Diego Ferreira, making this a fresh matchup.
• No reported injuries for either fighter ahead of the fight.
• Fight takes place at United Center with strong fan interest; Ferreira relocated to Dallas for full-time training, indicating increased preparation.
• Ferreira has long requested this fight and is motivated to deliver an exciting performance after relocating and improving training; Green seeks a comeback win to improve his veteran record.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Ferreira -155, Green +130	Carlos Diego Ferreira	★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread	Ferreira -3.5 -110, Green +3.5 -120	Carlos Diego Ferreira -3.5	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over 1.5 -215, Under 1.5 +165	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 62%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Carlos Diego Ferreira -13%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 67%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 67% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 40.6% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Moneyline: Carlos Diego Ferreira to win. Spread: Carlos Diego Ferreira -3.5. Over/Under: Under 1.5 rounds.

Predicted Score: Carlos Diego Ferreira wins by decision or late stoppage

Top EV Parlay for MMA/Boxing – August 16, 2025

Game	Pick	Odds	EV
King Green vs. Carlos Diego Ferreira Prediction	Under 1.5	165	67%
Edson Barboza vs. Drakkar Klose Prediction	Under 2.5	132	44%
Jessica Andrade vs. Lupita Godinez Prediction	Over 2.5	-325	40%

Combined Odds: +704 |
Wager: $20 —
Potential Payout: $160.79

Match Analysis: King Green vs Mauricio Ruffy – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-03-08
• Time: 3:15 AM UTC
• Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States

Game Overview

King Green faces Mauricio Ruffy in a lightweight bout at UFC 313. Green, with a record of 32-16-1, is coming off a loss to Paddy Pimblett. Ruffy, 11-1, is on a six-fight win streak, having won his last bout via decision.

Key Factors to Consider

• King Green has a diverse skill set with 11 knockouts and 9 submissions, but is on a losing streak. Mauricio Ruffy is known for his knockout power, with 10 of his wins coming via KO.
• This is the first meeting between King Green and Mauricio Ruffy.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• The fight is at the T-Mobile Arena, which might favor neither fighter specifically due to its neutral location.
• Ruffy is highly motivated to extend his win streak, while Green seeks to bounce back from his recent loss.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	King Green: 350, Mauricio Ruffy: -455	Mauricio Ruffy	★★★★☆ 70%
Spread	King Green: 3.5 180, Mauricio Ruffy: -3.5 -250	Mauricio Ruffy	★★★☆☆ 55%
Over_under	Over: 1.5 -175, Under: 1.5 135	Over	★★★☆☆ 60%

Predicted Outcome

Mauricio Ruffy is favored to win due to his recent form and knockout power.

Predicted Score: Mauricio Ruffy by KO/TKO in Round 2

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3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Bobby King vs. Mauricio Ruffy Prediction	Mauricio Ruffy Win	-500	★★★★☆ 80% (80%)
Curtis Blaydes vs. Rizvan Kuniev Prediction	Curtis Blaydes Win	-325	★★★★☆ 75% (75%)
King Green vs. Mauricio Ruffy Prediction	Mauricio Ruffy Win	-455	★★★★☆ 70% (70%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: -109

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $38.28