Match Analysis: King Green vs Carlos Diego Ferreira – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-16
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: United Center, Chicago, Illinois

Game Overview

The lightweight bout between King Green and Carlos Diego Ferreira is scheduled for August 16, 2025, at UFC 319 in Chicago. Both fighters are veterans with contrasting recent form: Green (32-17-1) enters after back-to-back losses, including a KO loss, while Ferreira (19-6) is coming off a decision loss but has a strong submission win history. The fight is expected to be competitive and action-packed given both fighters' striking volume, defensive styles, and experience.

Key Factors to Consider

• King Green is known for high activity and precision, landing 6.40 significant strikes per minute with 52% accuracy, but has recently suffered knockouts and submission losses. Ferreira lands fewer strikes per minute (4.82) with 40% accuracy but has a higher defense rate, absorbing 3.46 significant strikes per minute and blocking 55%. Ferreira also has key submission wins and better reach (wingspan: 74" vs Green's 71").
• No prior head-to-head matchup between King Green and Carlos Diego Ferreira. Both fighters have longstanding mutual respect and desire to fight each other, making this a highly anticipated match.
• No current injury reports for either fighter. Ferreira was ahead of schedule for weight cut at 162 lbs, indicating good physical readiness. Green is coming off recent KO and submission losses but no reported injuries.
• The fight is on the prelims card of a stacked UFC 319 event featuring top matchups, potentially influencing fighter motivation and crowd dynamics. The bout's cancellation was briefly rumored but confirmed to be proceeding.
• Ferreira expressed eagerness to finally face Green, having called him out for years. Green seeks to rebound after recent losses, making motivation strong on both sides.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Carlos Diego Ferreira: -155, King Green: 130	Carlos Diego Ferreira	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	Carlos Diego Ferreira: -3.5 -110, King Green: +3.5 -120	Carlos Diego Ferreira -3.5	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over: 1.5 -215, Under: 1.5 165	Over 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Carlos Diego Ferreira 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 1.5 -5%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Carlos Diego Ferreira at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Carlos Diego Ferreira is favored to win due to a better recent record, higher defensive capability, experience in submissions, and reach advantage. However, Green's striking volume and accuracy pose a significant threat, making this fight highly competitive.

Predicted Score: Carlos Diego Ferreira wins by submission in Round 2

Match Analysis: King Green vs Mauricio Ruffy – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-03-08
• Time: 3:15 AM UTC
• Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States

Game Overview

King Green faces Mauricio Ruffy in a lightweight bout at UFC 313. Green, with a record of 32-16-1, is coming off a loss to Paddy Pimblett. Ruffy, 11-1, is on a six-fight win streak, having won his last bout via decision.

Key Factors to Consider

• King Green has a diverse skill set with 11 knockouts and 9 submissions, but is on a losing streak. Mauricio Ruffy is known for his knockout power, with 10 of his wins coming via KO.
• This is the first meeting between King Green and Mauricio Ruffy.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• The fight is at the T-Mobile Arena, which might favor neither fighter specifically due to its neutral location.
• Ruffy is highly motivated to extend his win streak, while Green seeks to bounce back from his recent loss.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	King Green: 350, Mauricio Ruffy: -455	Mauricio Ruffy	★★★★☆ 70%
Spread	King Green: 3.5 180, Mauricio Ruffy: -3.5 -250	Mauricio Ruffy	★★★☆☆ 55%
Over_under	Over: 1.5 -175, Under: 1.5 135	Over	★★★☆☆ 60%

Predicted Outcome

Mauricio Ruffy is favored to win due to his recent form and knockout power.

Predicted Score: Mauricio Ruffy by KO/TKO in Round 2

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3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Bobby King vs. Mauricio Ruffy Prediction	Mauricio Ruffy Win	-500	★★★★☆ 80% (80%)
Curtis Blaydes vs. Rizvan Kuniev Prediction	Curtis Blaydes Win	-325	★★★★☆ 75% (75%)
King Green vs. Mauricio Ruffy Prediction	Mauricio Ruffy Win	-455	★★★★☆ 70% (70%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: -109

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $38.28