Jamahal Hill vs. Khalil Rountree Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Jamahal Hill vs Khalil Rountree – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-06-21
  • Time: 9:30 PM UTC
  • Location: Baku Crystal Hall, Baku, Azerbaijan

Game Overview

The light heavyweight clash between Jamahal Hill and Khalil Rountree Jr. is the main event for UFC Fight Night on June 21, 2025, in Baku. This bout was initially scheduled a year earlier but postponed, adding anticipation. Hill, a former UFC champion, seeks redemption after consecutive knockout losses, while Rountree, also coming off a stoppage loss to Alex Pereira, has gained confidence from an impressive performance despite that defeat. Both fighters are southpaws with notable striking skills, setting the stage for a dynamic stand-up battle.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Jamahal Hill enters with a 12-3 record, boasting a high striking volume (7.05 significant strikes landed per minute) and 55.44% striking accuracy. In contrast, Khalil Rountree holds a 14-6 record, with a lower striking rate (3.73 significant strikes per minute) and 41.53% accuracy. Neither has recorded takedowns recently, and submissions are rare for both. Hill's offensive output is notably higher, suggesting a more aggressive striking approach.
  • This match marks their first direct meeting, originally planned for last year but postponed, so no prior head-to-head results exist.
  • Neither fighter is reported to carry injuries into the fight, implying both are fully prepared physically.
  • The fight takes place in Baku, Azerbaijan, a neutral site for both fighters. There is no home advantage, but the event is a major UFC Fight Night with significant viewership, providing a high-pressure environment. The bout precedes UFC International Fight Week, making it an important platform for both competitors to boost rankings and visibility.
  • Jamahal Hill is motivated to rebound after back-to-back KO losses to high-profile fighters, aiming to re-establish himself among top light heavyweights. Khalil Rountree has the motivation to capitalize on his strong showing against Alex Pereira despite a loss, seeking to continue his upward momentum and prove his status as a top contender.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Jamahal Hill: -105, Khalil Rountree: -115 Jamahal Hill ★★★☆☆ 58%
Spread Jamahal Hill: 5.5 -125, Khalil Rountree: -5.5 -105 Jamahal Hill +5.5 ★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under over: 3.5 170, under: 3.5 -220 Under 3.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Jamahal Hill -0%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 3.5 -5%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Jamahal Hill at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Jamahal Hill is predicted to win by decision or late stoppage due to his superior striking volume and accuracy. Rountree’s power and resilience make an upset possible, but Hill's more consistent output and technical striking edge tilt confidence towards him.

Predicted Score: Jamahal Hill wins by unanimous decision after 5 rounds


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