Match Analysis: Kevin Caperna vs Gabriele Lionetti – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-05-31
• Time: 2:30 PM UTC
• Location: Cage Warriors 189, Rome

Game Overview

The upcoming MMA bout features Kevin Caperna as the home fighter facing Gabriele Lionetti at Cage Warriors 189 in Rome. Both fighters compete in the flyweight division (125 lbs). Caperna holds a record of 2 wins and 1 loss, with one KO/TKO victory and one decision win, while Lionetti's detailed record data is not fully available but indicates at least 1 KO/TKO and a decision victory against Caperna previously. The fight is highly competitive given their similar finishing profiles and prior engagement history.

Key Factors to Consider

• Kevin Caperna has shown resilience with a positive record, securing both KO/TKO and decision wins, indicating versatility. Gabriele Lionetti, favored by bookmakers, appears to have a slight edge in current form and odds, suggesting better recent performances or conditioning.
• The head-to-head history includes at least two known outcomes — one KO/TKO and one decision — but it is unclear who won which bout from the available data. This suggests closely contested matches without clear dominance.
• No reported injuries or physical setbacks have been identified for either fighter prior to this match.
• The fight location in Rome could slightly favor Kevin Caperna as the home fighter, though no other significant external factors such as weather or travel issues are reported.
• Both fighters are likely motivated to assert dominance in the flyweight division of Cage Warriors, with Lionetti possibly more driven as the betting favorite, while Caperna will seek to upset expectations on home turf.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Gabriele Lionetti: -230, Kevin Caperna: 190	Gabriele Lionetti	★★★★☆ 75%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Gabriele Lionetti -0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Gabriele Lionetti at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Based on current odds and fight data, Gabriele Lionetti is the predicted winner due to superior betting odds (-230 vs +190) and implied probabilities, but Kevin Caperna’s home advantage and fighting versatility provide credible upset potential.

Predicted Score: Gabriele Lionetti wins by decision or late round KO/TKO

Match Analysis: Kevin Caperna vs Jordan Molinari – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-03-08
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: PalaPellicone, Rome, Italy

Game Overview

Kevin Caperna and Jordan Molinari face off in an MMA match at CW 183. Both fighters have a 1-1 record, making this a closely contested bout.

Key Factors to Consider

• Kevin Caperna recently won via TKO against Abderrahim Mazouari but lost his last fight to Paolo Scaglia. Jordan Molinari also has a similar record, indicating a competitive match.
• There is no recorded head-to-head match between Kevin Caperna and Jordan Molinari, making this their first encounter.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• The match is held in Rome, Italy, which might favor neither fighter specifically due to lack of home advantage information.
• Both fighters are motivated to improve their records, but Jordan Molinari is favored due to better odds.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Jordan Molinari: -750, Kevin Caperna: 450	Jordan Molinari	★★★★☆ 70%

Predicted Outcome

Jordan Molinari is likely to win due to favorable odds.

Predicted Score: Decision in favor of Jordan Molinari