Match Analysis: Kelvin Gastelum vs Dustin Stoltzfus – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-13
• Time: 11:10 PM UTC
• Location: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio

Game Overview

Middleweight MMA bout between Kelvin Gastelum and Dustin Stoltzfus as part of UFC Noche 3. Gastelum is the betting favorite with a strong striking profile and reach disadvantage, while Stoltzfus offers a longer reach and slightly better striking accuracy. Both athletes are same age, with Gastelum seeking to recover from recent losses and Stoltzfus aiming to regain momentum after a defeat.

Key Factors to Consider

• Kelvin Gastelum holds a 20-10 record with a tendency for high-volume striking but has had recent setbacks. Dustin Stoltzfus is 16-7, showing durable defense and decent striking accuracy but lacks consistent finishing power.
• No recorded previous head-to-head matchups between Gastelum and Stoltzfus, making stylistic analysis and recent form critical.
• No significant injuries publicly reported affecting either fighter going into the matchup.
• Fighting at Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas, an even venue without clear home advantage. Both fighters are familiar with competing in similar environments.
• Gastelum motivated to rebound from recent losses and maintain relevance in middleweight rankings. Stoltzfus aims to build momentum after a recent loss, making him a dangerous underdog.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Gastelum -250, Stoltzfus +205	Kelvin Gastelum	★★★★☆ 70%
Spread	Gastelum -3.5 -120, Stoltzfus +3.5 -110	Kelvin Gastelum -3.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 2.5 -215, Under 2.5 +165	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Kelvin Gastelum -3%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 59%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 59% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 35.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Kelvin Gastelum to win by decision

Predicted Score: Kelvin Gastelum wins by unanimous decision after 3 rounds

Top EV Parlay for MMA/Boxing – September 13, 2025

Game	Pick	Odds	EV
Alice Pereira vs. Montserrat Rendon Prediction	Under 2.5	210	120%
Kelvin Gastelum vs. Dustin Stoltzfus Prediction	Under 2.5	165	59%
Arian Sadiković vs. Dawid Jarowienko Prediction			43%

Combined Odds: 100 |
Wager: $20 —
Potential Payout: $0

Match Analysis: Kelvin Gastelum vs Joseph Pyfer – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: June 7, 2025
• Time: 2:00 AM UTC
• Location: Prudential Center in Newark

Game Overview

The highly anticipated UFC 316 middleweight match between Kelvin Gastelum and Joe Pyfer is set to take place on June 7. Pyfer, considered a significant favorite, looks to capitalize on his youth and recent form against Gastelum, who has been less active in recent years due to injuries. The fight is crucial for both fighters, with Pyfer hoping to boost his career and Gastelum seeking a comeback win.

Key Factors to Consider

• Joe Pyfer is the younger and more active fighter, with a better MMA record since joining the UFC. Kelvin Gastelum has experienced a period of inactivity and is considered past his prime.
• This will be their first official bout, although they were initially scheduled to fight in March before Pyfer fell ill.
• Gastelum has been dealing with multiple injuries, which have significantly impacted his recent activity.
• Pyfer benefits from fighting close to home, which could provide a psychological boost.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, but Pyfer's confidence in calling Gastelum a 'layup' indicates his eagerness to perform well.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	-380 for Pyfer, +300 for Gastelum	Pyfer to win	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	-3.5 for Pyfer at -170, +3.5 for Gastelum at +125	Pyfer to cover the spread	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 2.5 at -130, Under 2.5 at +100	Under 2.5	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Joseph Pyfer 200%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 20%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Joseph Pyfer at 200% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 66.7% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Joe Pyfer is expected to win by a TKO/KO finish, given his physical advantages and recent form.

Predicted Score: Pyfer wins by TKO in Round 1 or 2

Top EV Parlay for MMA/Boxing – June 7, 2025

Game	Pick	Odds	EV
Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joseph Pyfer Prediction	Joseph Pyfer	-380	200%
Patchy Mix vs. Mario Bautista Prediction	Mario Bautista	154	47%
Vicente Luque vs. Kevin Holland Prediction	Over 1.5	-175	26%

Combined Odds: +404 |
Wager: $20 —
Potential Payout: $100.84