Match Analysis: Kelvin Gastelum vs Joseph Pyfer – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: June 7, 2025
- Time: 2:00 AM UTC
- Location: Prudential Center in Newark
Game Overview
The highly anticipated UFC 316 middleweight match between Kelvin Gastelum and Joe Pyfer is set to take place on June 7. Pyfer, considered a significant favorite, looks to capitalize on his youth and recent form against Gastelum, who has been less active in recent years due to injuries. The fight is crucial for both fighters, with Pyfer hoping to boost his career and Gastelum seeking a comeback win.
Key Factors to Consider
- Joe Pyfer is the younger and more active fighter, with a better MMA record since joining the UFC. Kelvin Gastelum has experienced a period of inactivity and is considered past his prime.
- This will be their first official bout, although they were initially scheduled to fight in March before Pyfer fell ill.
- Gastelum has been dealing with multiple injuries, which have significantly impacted his recent activity.
- Pyfer benefits from fighting close to home, which could provide a psychological boost.
- Both fighters are highly motivated, but Pyfer's confidence in calling Gastelum a 'layup' indicates his eagerness to perform well.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -380 for Pyfer, +300 for Gastelum | Pyfer to win | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | -3.5 for Pyfer at -170, +3.5 for Gastelum at +125 | Pyfer to cover the spread | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 at -130, Under 2.5 at +100 | Under 2.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Joseph Pyfer 200% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 20% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Joseph Pyfer at 200% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 66.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Joe Pyfer is expected to win by a TKO/KO finish, given his physical advantages and recent form.
Predicted Score: Pyfer wins by TKO in Round 1 or 2