Match Analysis: Kauê Fernandes vs Harry Hardwick – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-06
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: Accor Arena, Paris

Game Overview

Featherweight champion Harry Hardwick steps up on short notice to fight Kauê Fernandes at UFC Paris, moving up a weight class for his UFC debut. Fernandes, with a 10-2 MMA record, was originally set to face Fares Ziam but now meets the Cage Warriors star. This fight features contrasting preparation times and experience in different divisions.

Key Factors to Consider

• Fernandes holds a 10-2 record, showing solid experience in lightweight with consistent performances. Hardwick, at 13-3-1, comes off a recent Cage Warriors featherweight title defense and a strong technical skillset but is moving up in weight and has less time to prepare.
• No previous head-to-head matchups exist between Fernandes and Hardwick, making this their first encounter.
• No reported injuries for either fighter, but Hardwick’s short notice entry may impact his peak physical condition and preparation.
• Hardwick’s quick turnaround and weight class jump are significant external pressures; the fight being in Paris at the Accor Arena may favor Fernandes due to better preparation.
• Hardwick is highly motivated in his UFC debut to establish himself at a higher level and prove his versatility by moving up in weight. Fernandes aims to continue his winning momentum and capitalize on the short notice factor against Hardwick.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Fernandes: -160, Hardwick: +140	Kauê Fernandes	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Fernandes -1.5 (-150), Hardwick +1.5 (+130)	Fernandes -1.5	★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under	Over 2.5 -205, Under 2.5 +177	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Kauê Fernandes -3%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 66%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 66% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 37.4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Kauê Fernandes to win by decision

Predicted Score: Fernandes wins via unanimous decision after 3 rounds

Match Analysis: Guram Kutateladze vs Kauê Fernandes – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-03-22
• Time: 5:15 PM UTC
• Location: O2 Arena, London

Game Overview

Guram Kutateladze and Kauê Fernandes face off in a lightweight bout at UFC Fight Night 255. Kutateladze, known for his aggressive style and knockout victories, is favored against Fernandes, who relies heavily on powerful punches.

Key Factors to Consider

• Kutateladze has a strong record with 13 wins, including 7 knockouts. Fernandes has 9 wins with 5 knockouts but struggles against wrestlers. Kutateladze's experience and durability give him an edge.
• This is the first meeting between the two fighters, with no prior head-to-head data.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• The fight takes place at the O2 Arena in London, which might favor Kutateladze due to his European fan base.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, with Kutateladze seeking to regain momentum and Fernandes aiming to rise in the rankings.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	-425 for Kutateladze, +330 for Fernandes	Guram Kutateladze	★★★★☆ 80%
Over_under	Over 2.5: -175, Under 2.5: +135	Over 2.5	★★★☆☆ 60%

Predicted Outcome

Guram Kutateladze is likely to win due to his experience and well-rounded skills.

Predicted Score: Decision or late stoppage in favor of Kutateladze.