Match Analysis: Karine Silva vs Dione Barbosa – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-16
- Time: 10:15 PM UTC
- Location: UFC 319 Event Venue (not specified)
Game Overview
This is a women's flyweight bout between Karine Silva and Dione Barbosa at UFC 319. Both fighters have grappling strengths with competitive striking. Barbosa won their previous 2019 meeting by unanimous decision, but Silva is currently favored.
Key Factors to Consider
- Karine Silva has shown more recent activity and form, entering as a slight favorite with odds around -205 to -220. Barbosa is less active and accepted the fight on short notice, which can impact conditioning and preparation.
- Barbosa has a 2019 victory over Silva via unanimous decision, indicating competitive parity and knowledge of each other's styles.
- No significant injuries reported for either fighter, but Barbosa's short notice acceptance may imply less preparation time.
- The fight takes place at UFC 319, a high-profile event likely motivating both fighters. Barbosa's underdog status (+175 to +195) might provide additional incentive.
- Barbosa is motivated as the underdog looking to upset a favored Silva, who seeks to validate her position as favorite and avenge a previous loss.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Karine Silva: -205, Dione Barbosa: +175 | Karine Silva | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | Karine Silva -1.5 rounds: N/A, Dione Barbosa +1.5 rounds: N/A | Karine Silva to win outright (since spread bets not available) | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: -245, Under 2.5: +195 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Karine Silva -8% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 83% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 83% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 42.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Moneyline: Karine Silva win; Spread: Silva to win by decision (assuming a 3-round fight, spread -1.5 rounds is not offered, so prediction focuses on moneyline); Over/Under: Under 2.5 rounds
Predicted Score: Karine Silva wins by decision after 3 rounds