Match Analysis: Kansas State Wildcats vs TCU Horned Frogs – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-11
• Time: 7:30 PM UTC
• Location: Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Kansas State

Game Overview

The matchup features TCU Horned Frogs (4-1) visiting Kansas State Wildcats (2-4) in a Big 12 conference clash. TCU enters with a superior record and a strong passing offense, while Kansas State has shown defensive vulnerabilities but remains competitive in close games.

Key Factors to Consider

• Kansas State has struggled with a 2-4 record, though their last three losses were by a combined margin of 10 points, indicating competitiveness. TCU boasts a 4-1 record with one of the best passing attacks led by QB Hoover, despite some defensive issues.
• While detailed recent H2H data is limited, TCU has been favored historically in recent meetings, and current odds reflect their status as slight favorites.
• No significant injuries reported for either team that would dramatically alter expected lineups or game flow.
• The game is at Kansas State's home stadium, which can slightly boost home team performance. Weather and other external conditions are normal and not expected to impact play significantly.
• TCU is motivated to maintain strong conference standing (4-1) and build on recent success. Kansas State seeks to improve their losing record and leverage home advantage to upset a favored opponent.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Kansas State Wildcats: +104, TCU Horned Frogs: -122	TCU Horned Frogs	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Kansas State Wildcats +1.5: -105, TCU Horned Frogs -1.5: -115	TCU Horned Frogs -1.5	★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under	Over 55.5: -110, Under 55.5: -110	Under 55.5	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	TCU Horned Frogs 4%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 55.5 15%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 55.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

TCU Horned Frogs to win on the moneyline, cover the spread, with the game going under the total points line.

Predicted Score: TCU 27 – Kansas State 24

Match Analysis: Baylor Bears vs Kansas State Wildcats – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: October 4, 2025
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: McLane Stadium

Game Overview

A Big 12 matchup between Baylor Bears (3-2, 1-1) and Kansas State Wildcats (2-3, 1-1), with Baylor favored due to its strong passing offense but facing a solid Kansas State defense.

Key Factors to Consider

• Kansas State's solid defense has been limiting opponents to 181 passing yards per game, while Baylor relies heavily on its passing game. Kansas State's offense showed improvement last week.
• No recent head-to-head data indicates a significant advantage, but Baylor's reliance on passing could be challenged by Kansas State's defense.
• No significant injury reports available that would impact the outcome.
• Weather conditions and crowd support could favor Baylor, but sharp money is backing Kansas State.
• Both teams are motivated as they are both 1-1 in league play, but Kansas State's recent win could boost their confidence.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	-230 (Baylor), 190 (Kansas State)	Kansas State	★★★☆☆ 58%
Spread	-6.5 -112 (Baylor), 6.5 -108 (Kansas State)	Kansas State +6.5	★★★★☆ 74%
Over/under	61.5 -110 (Over), 61.5 -110 (Under)	Under 61.5	★★★☆☆ 62%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Baylor Bears 60%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 61.5 -5%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Baylor Bears at 60% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 31.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given the factors, taking Kansas State +6.5 offers the best value due to their defensive strength and recent offensive improvement.

Predicted Score: Baylor 24, Kansas State 23

Match Analysis: Kansas State Wildcats vs UCF Knights – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-27
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: Bill Snyder Family Stadium

Game Overview

This American College Football game features the struggling 1-3 Kansas State Wildcats hosting the unbeaten 3-0 UCF Knights. Kansas State is favored by 6.5 points but has shown poor recent form and weak ATS performance, while UCF has momentum and is a live underdog in this matchup.

Key Factors to Consider

• Kansas State is currently 1-3 with losses in recent games and a 0-4 ATS streak, including 0-1 ATS on the road. UCF is undefeated at 3-0, coming off a strong start to the season with improving overall team play.
• No recent head-to-head trends strongly favor either side, but UCF’s recent form gives them an edge. Kansas State’s defense has struggled allowing high-scoring games, whereas UCF’s offense is productive.
• No significant injuries reported for either team impacting key positions that would drastically change game dynamics.
• Game played at Kansas State’s home stadium, Bill Snyder Family Stadium, with favorable weather conditions (74°F, no rain, low wind). This should slightly benefit Kansas State.
• UCF seeks to extend their perfect season early in the campaign, which should motivate strong performance. Kansas State looks to rebound from a poor start to avoid continued losses and regain confidence before tougher opponents.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Kansas State -220, UCF +180	UCF Knights	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	Kansas State -6.5 -105, UCF +6.5 -115	UCF Knights +6.5	★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under	Over 49.5 -110, Under 49.5 -110	Under 49.5	★★★☆☆ 62%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Kansas State Wildcats 46%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 49.5 18%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Kansas State Wildcats at 46% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 25.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Moneyline: UCF Knights to win; Spread: UCF Knights +6.5; Over/Under: Under 49.5 points

Predicted Score: Kansas State 23, UCF 27

Match Analysis: Arizona Wildcats vs Kansas State Wildcats – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-12
• Time: 1:00 AM UTC
• Location: Arizona Stadium, Tucson, AZ

Game Overview

The game features the Arizona Wildcats (2-0) hosting the Kansas State Wildcats (1-2) in a closely matched Big 12 conference contest. Arizona is slight underdog by 1.5 points with a total of 54.5 points projected.

Key Factors to Consider

• Arizona is undefeated at 2-0 and has shown strong defensive metrics, allowing zero touchdowns so far in the season. Kansas State comes off a narrow 24-21 loss to Army and has struggled to win ATS all season.
• Arizona seeks revenge for last season's loss to Kansas State. Recent matchups have been competitive and close.
• No major injuries reported for either team affecting key starters.
• Arizona has home advantage in Tucson, Arizona Stadium with prime-time FOX TV coverage enhancing motivation.
• Kansas State is under pressure to rebound from early losses and avoid a 1-3 start, while Arizona wants to maintain their unbeaten start and prove progress from last year's 4-8 finish.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Arizona Wildcats: +102, Kansas State Wildcats: -122	Arizona Wildcats	★★★☆☆ 64%
Spread	Arizona Wildcats +1.5: -105, Kansas State Wildcats -1.5: -115	Arizona Wildcats +1.5	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 54.5: -105, Under 54.5: -115	Under 54.5	★★★☆☆ 68%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Arizona Wildcats 7%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 54.5 3%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Arizona Wildcats at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 6.9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Arizona Wildcats to cover the spread

Predicted Score: Arizona Wildcats 24 – Kansas State Wildcats 21

Match Analysis: Kansas State Wildcats vs Army Black Knights – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-06
• Time: 11:00 PM UTC
• Location: Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan, KS

Game Overview

The Kansas State Wildcats (1-1) host the Army Black Knights (0-1) in a Week 2 matchup. Kansas State is a heavy favorite at home, recommended at -17.5 spread and strong moneyline odds. Army enters off a loss and seeks to avoid 0-2 start.

Key Factors to Consider

• Kansas State has shown a balanced offense led by Avery Johnson’s passing and Joe Jackson’s rushing, whereas Army relies heavily on a ground game averaging 280 yards per contest but struggled in their opener. Kansas State has yet to cover the spread this season but plays back-to-back home games. Army lost their season opener to an inferior opponent.
• Recent H2H data is limited, but Kansas State's overall superiority in talent and home advantage weigh strongly. Army has shown defensive vulnerabilities allowing 30 points and 344 yards per game.
• No major injuries reported for either team affecting starting positions significantly.
• Weather expected to be clear with 70°F and low wind, minimizing environmental impact. Kansas State benefits from familiar home conditions and crowd advantage. Army travels out of conference on first road trip of the season which may affect preparation.
• Army is motivated to avoid an 0-2 start and rebound after a disappointing loss, while Kansas State seeks a statement home win to gain momentum after early season inconsistency.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Kansas State: -850, Army: 575	Kansas State	★★★★☆ 85%
Spread	Kansas State -17.5: -102, Army +17.5: -118	Kansas State -17.5	★★★★☆ 78%
Over/under	Over 46.5: -115, Under 46.5: -105	Under 46.5	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Kansas State Wildcats -2%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 46.5 17%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 46.5 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Kansas State to win outright on the moneyline, cover the -17.5 spread, and the game to go under the 46.5 total.

Predicted Score: Kansas State 31 – Army 13

Match Analysis: Kansas State Wildcats vs North Dakota Fighting Hawks – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-30
• Time: 11:00 PM UTC
• Location: Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan, Kansas

Game Overview

The No. 17 Kansas State Wildcats host the North Dakota Fighting Hawks in a Week 2 matchup. Kansas State returns home after a narrow 24-21 loss to Iowa State in their season opener, aiming to redeem themselves against FCS opponent North Dakota, who enters the game with a new coach and aggressive mindset.

Key Factors to Consider

• Kansas State is coming off a close loss with notable offensive efficiency from QB Avery Johnson, whereas North Dakota is an FCS team yet to start their season and was predicted to finish 7th in their conference.
• This is the first-ever meeting between Kansas State and North Dakota, so no direct head-to-head data exists.
• No significant injuries reported for either team ahead of the matchup.
• The game will be played at Kansas State's home stadium with good weather conditions (79°F, no rain, light wind). Home crowd support and travel demands favor Kansas State.
• Kansas State seeks immediate redemption after a tough loss and home opener prestige. North Dakota, under a new coaching regime focusing on toughness, will be motivated but faces a clear talent and division gap.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	-4000 (Kansas State), +1400 (North Dakota)	Kansas State	★★★★★ 95%
Spread	-25.5 -106 (Kansas State), +25.5 -114 (North Dakota)	Kansas State -25.5	★★★★☆ 85%
Over/under	-105 (Over 55.5), -115 (Under 55.5)	Under 55.5	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Kansas State Wildcats -4%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 55.5 12%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 55.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Kansas State to win decisively, covering the large spread. Expect moderate total scoring near the line.

Predicted Score: Kansas State 38 – North Dakota 10

Match Analysis: Kansas State Wildcats vs Iowa State Cyclones – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-23
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: Aviva Stadium, Dublin, Ireland

Game Overview

Ranked Big 12 rivalry featuring No. 17 Kansas State Wildcats hosting No. 22 Iowa State Cyclones at a neutral site overseas. Both teams enter fresh at 0-0 with similar offensive and defensive capabilities, promising a competitive early-season matchup.

Key Factors to Consider

• Kansas State averaged 30.8 PPG and allowed 23.4 PPG last season, finishing 9-4; Iowa State averaged 31.1 PPG and allowed 22.9 PPG, finishing 11-3 and winning a bowl game, indicating closely matched offensive and defensive units.
• Recent encounters favor Iowa State having won four of the last five games, including a significant 29-21 win last November marked by turnovers and key defensive stops; however, simulation models show Kansas State narrowly favored to win by about 4.3 points.
• No major injuries reported for either team at kickoff, suggesting both squads should be at near full strength.
• The game is played at Aviva Stadium in Dublin, a neutral overseas venue, which may slightly reduce home-field advantage for Kansas State and impact team routines; travel and unfamiliar conditions could influence performance.
• Both teams start with strong motivation to win a prestigious non-conference rivalry game to set tone for the season; Iowa State's status as slight underdog could fuel an upset attempt, while Kansas State aims to confirm favoritism.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Kansas State -155, Iowa State +130	Kansas State	★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread	Kansas State -3 -110, Iowa State +3 -110	Kansas State -3	★★★☆☆ 62%
Over/under	Over 50.5 -112, Under 50.5 -108	Under 50.5	★★★☆☆ 58%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Kansas State Wildcats 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 50.5 12%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 50.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12.6% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Kansas State Wildcats to win outright and cover the 3-point spread; the total score to stay under 50.5 points.

Predicted Score: Kansas State 24 – 18 Iowa State