Match Analysis: Kamil Szkaradek vs Oleksii Polischuk – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-15
• Time: 3:00 PM UTC
• Location: KSW 112, Poland

Game Overview

Kamil Szkaradek faces Oleksii Polischuk in a bantamweight MMA bout at KSW 112. Both fighters are ranked in the KSW bantamweight division, with Polischuk favored by oddsmakers due to recent form and higher finish rate.

Key Factors to Consider

• Oleksii Polischuk has won 4 of his last 5 fights, all by finish (3 KO/TKO, 1 submission). Kamil Szkaradek is 2-2 in his last 4, with both losses coming against top-5 KSW bantamweights. Polischuk holds a significant edge in striking accuracy and takedown defense.
• No previous meetings between the two fighters.
• No public reports of injuries for either fighter. Both are listed as healthy and active.
• Polischuk is fighting outside his home country (Ukraine), but has competed in Poland before. Szkaradek has home crowd support, but recent Polish fighters have underperformed against international competition at KSW.
• Polischuk is seeking a top-3 KSW ranking with a win. Szkaradek is fighting to avoid a third loss in four fights and maintain relevance in the division.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	home: 115, away: -155	Oleksii Polischuk	★★★★☆ 74%
Spread	home: +1.5, away: -1.5	Oleksii Polischuk -1.5	★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under	over: 190, under: -230	Over	★★★★☆ 71%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Oleksii Polischuk 7%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Oleksii Polischuk at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 10.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Oleksii Polischuk wins by finish (KO/TKO or submission) within three rounds.

Predicted Score: Oleksii Polischuk defeats Kamil Szkaradek via TKO in Round 2

Match Analysis: Kamil Szkaradek vs Kenji Bortoluzzi – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-06-14
• Time: 2:00 PM UTC
• Location: Ergo Arena, Gdańsk, Poland

Game Overview

Kamil Szkaradek (5-1, KSW #7 BW) faces Kenji Bortoluzzi (11-6-1) in a bantamweight prelim bout at KSW 107. Szkaradek is the younger, less experienced but currently favored fighter, while Bortoluzzi brings veteran experience, with more finishes by submission.

Key Factors to Consider

• Szkaradek: 5 wins (1 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 3 decisions); Bortoluzzi: 11 wins (2 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 3 decisions). Bortoluzzi has more experience but is older and has more losses.
• No prior head-to-head between the two. Bortoluzzi has more finishes, especially by submission, while Szkaradek is more decision-oriented. Bortoluzzi is significantly more proven at a higher level.
• No reported injuries for either fighter as of the event date.
• Fight is a prelim at a major Polish MMA event. Home-crowd advantage for Szkaradek likely. Both made weight without issue (Szkaradek: 135.8 lbs, Bortoluzzi: 136 lbs).
• Szkaradek is looking to solidify his top-10 ranking and move up the bantamweight division. Bortoluzzi is an experienced international fighter aiming to upset the local favorite.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Kamil Szkaradek: -350, Kenji Bortoluzzi: 275	Kamil Szkaradek to win	★★★★☆ 70%
Spread	Not typically offered in MMA, but implied spread: ~2.5 rounds in favor of home fighter (due to moneyline dominance).	Kamil Szkaradek to cover spread (if spread is set at -1.5 rounds in his favor)	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over/Under: Not widely listed for prelims, but expected line would be ~2.5 rounds.	Over 2.5 rounds (based on both fighters' recent tendency to go the distance and their technical styles).	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Kamil Szkaradek -13%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Kamil Szkaradek at -13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Kamil Szkaradek is favored due to age, momentum, and bookmaker odds, but Kenji Bortoluzzi's experience and submission threat make this a tricky fight. The model leans toward Szkaradek by decision or late finish, but with caution due to Bortoluzzi's craftiness and ability to pull off upsets.

Predicted Score: Kamil Szkaradek by unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) or late TKO/submission if action picks up in the third.