Match Analysis: Kamil Szkaradek vs Kenji Bortoluzzi – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-14
- Time: 2:00 PM UTC
- Location: Ergo Arena, Gdańsk, Poland
Game Overview
Kamil Szkaradek (5-1, KSW #7 BW) faces Kenji Bortoluzzi (11-6-1) in a bantamweight prelim bout at KSW 107. Szkaradek is the younger, less experienced but currently favored fighter, while Bortoluzzi brings veteran experience, with more finishes by submission.
Key Factors to Consider
- Szkaradek: 5 wins (1 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 3 decisions); Bortoluzzi: 11 wins (2 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 3 decisions). Bortoluzzi has more experience but is older and has more losses.
- No prior head-to-head between the two. Bortoluzzi has more finishes, especially by submission, while Szkaradek is more decision-oriented. Bortoluzzi is significantly more proven at a higher level.
- No reported injuries for either fighter as of the event date.
- Fight is a prelim at a major Polish MMA event. Home-crowd advantage for Szkaradek likely. Both made weight without issue (Szkaradek: 135.8 lbs, Bortoluzzi: 136 lbs).
- Szkaradek is looking to solidify his top-10 ranking and move up the bantamweight division. Bortoluzzi is an experienced international fighter aiming to upset the local favorite.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Kamil Szkaradek: -350, Kenji Bortoluzzi: 275 | Kamil Szkaradek to win | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Spread | Not typically offered in MMA, but implied spread: ~2.5 rounds in favor of home fighter (due to moneyline dominance). | Kamil Szkaradek to cover spread (if spread is set at -1.5 rounds in his favor) | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Over/under | Over/Under: Not widely listed for prelims, but expected line would be ~2.5 rounds. | Over 2.5 rounds (based on both fighters' recent tendency to go the distance and their technical styles). | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Kamil Szkaradek -13% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Kamil Szkaradek at -13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Kamil Szkaradek is favored due to age, momentum, and bookmaker odds, but Kenji Bortoluzzi's experience and submission threat make this a tricky fight. The model leans toward Szkaradek by decision or late finish, but with caution due to Bortoluzzi's craftiness and ability to pull off upsets.
Predicted Score: Kamil Szkaradek by unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) or late TKO/submission if action picks up in the third.