Match Analysis: Kaiwen Li vs Keiichiro Nakamura – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-22
- Time: 9:00 AM UTC
- Location: Shanghai Indoor Stadium
Game Overview
This is a featherweight semifinal bout at Road to UFC: Shanghai between Kaiwen Li from China and Keiichiro Nakamura from Japan, scheduled for 3 rounds. Both fighters are undefeated in recent records, making this a highly competitive and significant match for their UFC advancement.
Key Factors to Consider
- Kaiwen Li has a professional record of 15 wins and 6 losses, showing strong knockout and submission skills with 7 KOs and 1 submission. Keiichiro Nakamura holds a 6-1 record, mostly winning by KO, indicating strong striking ability. Li has more experience while Nakamura is younger with a slightly shorter reach.
- No prior matchups recorded between Kaiwen Li and Keiichiro Nakamura, so this is their first encounter.
- No reported injuries for either fighter before this bout; both appear to be in optimal condition based on weigh-in data.
- The fight is held in Shanghai Indoor Stadium, which may give slight home advantage to Kaiwen Li since he represents China. The event is important as part of the Road to UFC season 4 semifinals, adding high stakes.
- Both fighters are highly motivated to win this significant semifinal to advance in the Road to UFC tournament and earn a UFC contract, with Li possibly motivated by home crowd support and Nakamura by representing Japan strongly.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Kaiwen Li: +125, Keiichiro Nakamura: -155 | Keiichiro Nakamura to win | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | Kaiwen Li: +1.5, Keiichiro Nakamura: -1.5 | Nakamura wins by more than 1.5 rounds (likely KO/finish) | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | over_2.5_rounds: -110, under_2.5_rounds: -110 | Fight goes under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Keiichiro Nakamura -14% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Keiichiro Nakamura at -14% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Keiichiro Nakamura is favored to win on current moneyline odds, likely due to his strong KO record and younger age, but Kaiwen Li's experience and well-rounded skills suggest a competitive fight that could go to decision or KO.
Predicted Score: Nakamura wins by KO/TKO in Round 2