Match Analysis: Tim Elliott vs Kai Asakura – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-16
• Time: 2:00 AM UTC
• Location: United Center, Chicago

Game Overview

Flyweight bout at UFC 319 featuring Tim Elliott and Kai Asakura, both determined contenders with contrasting styles: Elliott known for his grappling and durability, Asakura for striking and finishing ability.

Key Factors to Consider

• Kai Asakura enters with strong recent wins and momentum, showing powerful striking and solid conditioning, whereas Tim Elliott has had inconsistent form and a recent layoff due to undisclosed reasons.
• No previous fights between these two competitors; this is their first matchup.
• No reported injuries for either fighter, although Elliott's recent inactivity might suggest minor undisclosed issues.
• Fight takes place in Chicago, a neutral venue with no apparent home advantage. Media and fan sentiment strongly favor Asakura.
• Asakura is motivated to ascend in the flyweight rankings and prove dominance; Elliott seeks a comeback win to regain contender status.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Kai Asakura -325, Tim Elliott +260	Kai Asakura	★★★★☆ 74%
Spread	Kai Asakura -3.5 -150, Tim Elliott +3.5 +110	Kai Asakura -3.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 2.5 -135, Under 2.5 +105	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Kai Asakura -5%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 23%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 23% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21.9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Kai Asakura to win by moneyline

Predicted Score: Kai Asakura wins by round 3 KO/TKO