Match Analysis: Justin Tafa vs Louie Sutherland – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-27
- Time: 2:45 AM UTC
- Location: UFC Perth, Australia
Game Overview
Heavyweight bout featuring Justin Tafa, a heavier but less experienced UFC competitor, versus Louie Sutherland, a Southpaw with a stronger recent performance record making his UFC debut.
Key Factors to Consider
- Tafa holds a 7-5-0 (1 NC) overall MMA record with moderate UFC experience but recent form has been inconsistent. Sutherland is on a 10-3-0 run and entering UFC with strong momentum and effective striking from the southpaw stance.
- This will be their first professional meeting, no direct head-to-head data available.
- No reported injuries for either fighter leading up to the bout. Tafa had some previous undisclosed issues which are now resolved.
- Bout taking place in Perth, Australia, close to Sutherland's origin which may offer him slight crowd and comfort advantage. Tafa is heavier with potential power edge.
- Sutherland motivated by UFC debut progression and career momentum; Tafa motivated to reestablish his UFC standing after inconsistent results.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Justin Tafa: -118, Louie Sutherland: -102 | Justin Tafa | ★★★☆☆ 63% |
| Spread | Justin Tafa -3.5: +105, Louie Sutherland +3.5: -140 | Justin Tafa -3.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 1.5: -160, Under 1.5: +124 | Under 1.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Justin Tafa 7% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 1.5 57% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 57% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 45.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Moneyline win for Justin Tafa, spread cover by Tafa -3.5, under 1.5 rounds total
Predicted Score: Justin Tafa wins by TKO in round 2