Match Analysis: Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-07-06
• Time: 2:00 AM UTC
• Location: TBD

Game Overview

The rumored lightweight UFC bout between Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett has generated considerable buzz, but recent reports clarify the fight is not scheduled for UFC 319 as initially speculated. Both fighters are top contenders with contrasting styles: Gaethje is a seasoned veteran known for his striking power and pressure, while Pimblett is an undefeated rising star with strong grappling and striking skills. Despite talk of a matchup, Pimblett has publicly denied any fight scheduled with Gaethje in August, indicating he requires more preparation time to make weight. Gaethje, meanwhile, has expressed willingness to fight only champions or for titles, further clouding the bout's likelihood for the near future.

Key Factors to Consider

• Gaethje has consistently delivered high-action performances against elite competition, known for his resilience and knockout power. Pimblett is undefeated in the UFC since 2021, coming off a notable win over former Bellator Champion Michael Chandler and showing dynamic finishing ability.
• No prior fights between Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett exist, as the matchup remains speculative and unconfirmed.
• No current injury reports or withdrawals have been confirmed for either fighter that would impact this potential matchup.
• Pimblett has rejected recent rumors about an August fight with Gaethje, emphasizing the need for a longer training camp. Gaethje's camp suggests he prefers fights with championship stakes, adding uncertainty to the bout's scheduling.
• Gaethje appears motivated to fight top-tier opponents or champions, reflecting his established career goals. Pimblett seeks continued growth and remains undefeated, likely preparing for a strategically timed next fight.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Justin Gaethje: 160, Paddy Pimblett: -185	Paddy Pimblett	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	Justin Gaethje: +1.5, Paddy Pimblett: -1.5	Paddy Pimblett -1.5	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over 1.5 rounds: -110, Under 1.5 rounds: -110	Over 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Paddy Pimblett -12%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Paddy Pimblett at -12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given the absence of an officially scheduled fight and Pimblett's denial of an August bout, the prediction is speculative. If the fight were to happen, Pimblett’s current momentum and undefeated UFC record against Gaethje’s veteran experience could lead to a closely contested bout with a slight edge to Pimblett due to activity and youth.

Predicted Score: Pimblett wins by decision or late finish in round 2 or 3

Match Analysis: Justin Gaethje vs Rafael Fiziev – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-03-09
• Time: 3:00 AM UTC
• Location: T-Mobile Arena

Game Overview

Justin Gaethje and Rafael Fiziev are set to clash at UFC 313 in a highly anticipated lightweight bout. Gaethje is looking to bounce back from a significant loss to Max Holloway, while Fiziev steps in on short notice after a long injury layoff.

Key Factors to Consider

• Justin Gaethje is known for his aggressive style and ability to deliver exciting fights. Rafael Fiziev, though coming off an injury, has shown resilience and skill in his previous bouts. Gaethje's recent performance against Holloway raises questions about his current form.
• The two fighters have met before at UFC 286, where Gaethje won by majority decision. This rematch offers Fiziev a chance to avenge his loss.
• Rafael Fiziev is returning from a significant knee injury, which might affect his performance. Justin Gaethje is coming off a brutal KO loss, which could impact his confidence and physical condition.
• The short notice for Fiziev might impact his preparation, while Gaethje had a full camp initially planned for Dan Hooker.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, with Gaethje seeking to regain title contention and Fiziev looking to capitalize on a surprise rematch opportunity.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Justin Gaethje: +140, Rafael Fiziev: -166	Rafael Fiziev	★★★☆☆ 60%
Spread	Justin Gaethje: +3.5 -140, Rafael Fiziev: -3.5 100	Justin Gaethje +3.5	★★★☆☆ 55%
Over_under	Over 2.5: -130, Under 2.5: 100	Over 2.5	★★★☆☆ 65%

Predicted Outcome

Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev is expected to be a closely contested fight, but Fiziev's odds suggest he is favored.

Predicted Score: Rafael Fiziev wins by decision or late stoppage.