Match Analysis: Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-07-06
• Time: 2:00 AM UTC
• Location: Not explicitly stated; likely UFC event location

Game Overview

The match between Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett is a highly anticipated lightweight bout. Gaethje, known for his aggressive striking and durability, tends to favor high-paced, action-packed fights. Pimblett, an undefeated UFC lightweight contender since 2021, has gained momentum through dynamic striking and submissions. Despite rumors about this fight at UFC 319, Pimblett has publicly denied intentions to fight Gaethje at that event, suggesting he needs more preparation time. Gaethje appears focused on fights with champions, though previous comments hinted at retirement if not fighting for a title. This fight pits two top lightweights with different styles and motivations, providing an intriguing matchup.

Key Factors to Consider

• Gaethje has consistently delivered entertaining fights with a strong record against top contenders, while Pimblett has been steadily rising in the lightweight rankings, remaining undefeated in the UFC and recently defeating Michael Chandler. Both fighters exhibit high finishing rates and strong stand-up capabilities.
• There is no recorded previous head-to-head matchup between Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett, making this their first encounter.
• No current injury reports have been indicated for either fighter in available information.
• Pimblett has denied rumors about fighting at UFC 319, causing some uncertainty about the timing and confirmation of this matchup. Gaethje’s willingness to fight only champions could impact motivation. The UFC lightweight division is competitive with multiple top contenders, adding pressure on both fighters.
• Gaethje seems motivated by fighting champions but may be considering retirement if not fighting for a belt, which could affect his approach. Pimblett is motivated to climb the lightweight rankings and prove himself as a title contender, making him eager for high-profile fights.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Justin Gaethje: +160, Paddy Pimblett: -185	Paddy Pimblett	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	Justin Gaethje: +1.5, Paddy Pimblett: -1.5	Paddy Pimblett -1.5	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	over_1.5_rounds: -110, under_1.5_rounds: -110	Over 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Paddy Pimblett -12%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Paddy Pimblett at -12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Based on current odds favoring Paddy Pimblett and his undefeated UFC streak, combined with his momentum and youth advantage, Pimblett is the slight favorite. However, Gaethje’s experience and fighting style could make this a closely contested match with potential for a finish. Therefore, a Pimblett win is predicted with strong fighting action expected.

Predicted Score: Pimblett wins by TKO or submission in Round 2

Match Analysis: Justin Gaethje vs Rafael Fiziev – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-03-09
• Time: 3:00 AM UTC
• Location: T-Mobile Arena

Game Overview

Justin Gaethje and Rafael Fiziev are set to clash at UFC 313 in a highly anticipated lightweight bout. Gaethje is looking to bounce back from a significant loss to Max Holloway, while Fiziev steps in on short notice after a long injury layoff.

Key Factors to Consider

• Justin Gaethje is known for his aggressive style and ability to deliver exciting fights. Rafael Fiziev, though coming off an injury, has shown resilience and skill in his previous bouts. Gaethje's recent performance against Holloway raises questions about his current form.
• The two fighters have met before at UFC 286, where Gaethje won by majority decision. This rematch offers Fiziev a chance to avenge his loss.
• Rafael Fiziev is returning from a significant knee injury, which might affect his performance. Justin Gaethje is coming off a brutal KO loss, which could impact his confidence and physical condition.
• The short notice for Fiziev might impact his preparation, while Gaethje had a full camp initially planned for Dan Hooker.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, with Gaethje seeking to regain title contention and Fiziev looking to capitalize on a surprise rematch opportunity.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Justin Gaethje: +140, Rafael Fiziev: -166	Rafael Fiziev	★★★☆☆ 60%
Spread	Justin Gaethje: +3.5 -140, Rafael Fiziev: -3.5 100	Justin Gaethje +3.5	★★★☆☆ 55%
Over_under	Over 2.5: -130, Under 2.5: 100	Over 2.5	★★★☆☆ 65%

Predicted Outcome

Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev is expected to be a closely contested fight, but Fiziev's odds suggest he is favored.

Predicted Score: Rafael Fiziev wins by decision or late stoppage.