Match Analysis: Maxwell Djantou Nana vs Justin Clarke – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-18
- Time: 4:00 PM UTC
- Location: PFL Africa (Rwanda)
Game Overview
Heavyweight semifinal in the inaugural PFL Africa tournament. Nana (7-1, Cameroon/France, 4 KOs) is an experienced, hard-hitting fighter on a winning streak, facing undefeated prospect Clarke (3-0, South Africa), a skilled but less-tested opponent. The winner advances to the heavyweight championship final.
Key Factors to Consider
- Nana is 7-1 with four KOs (57% KO rate), having beaten Mickael Groguhe by decision in his previous PFL Africa bout. Clarke is 3-0, but has never faced a fighter with Nana’s experience or record[1].
- No prior H2H, but Nana’s resume and international fight experience give him a clear edge[1][2].
- No reported injuries for either fighter.
- Nana outweighed Clarke by nearly 20 lbs at weigh-ins (263.2 vs. 244.6 lbs), indicating a significant size and strength advantage for Nana. The fight was not demoted, so the spot in the tournament is at stake[5].
- Semifinal stage of a major PFL postseason—both are highly motivated, but Nana’s PFL experience and KO power provide an extra edge[1][2].
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Nana -700, Clarke +500 | Nana by KO/TKO inside 2 rounds | ★★★★☆ 85% |
| Spread | Nana -3.5 around -350, Clarke +3.5 around +285 (estimated based on common MMA spread prices for a -700 ML favorite) | Nana to cover (win inside distance, likely by KO/TKO before 3rd round) | ★★★★☆ 80% |
| Over/under | Over 1.5 rounds +135, Under 1.5 rounds -155 | Under 1.5 rounds (fight ends inside 7:30) | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Maxwell Djantou Nana 428% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 1.5 23% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Maxwell Djantou Nana at 428% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 85.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Nana is the clear favorite due to experience, KO power, physical advantage, and proven ability to win under pressure. Clarke, though undefeated, has not faced this level of competition and may struggle with the step up.
Predicted Score: Nana wins by KO/TKO at 1:45 of Round 2