The Round 17 NRL match between the Dolphins and South Sydney Rabbitohs is set to take place at Suncorp Stadium on June 28, 2025. This game is significant for both teams: the Dolphins are positioned 9th on the ladder, aiming to stay in finals contention after a recent defeat, while the Rabbitohs sit 16th and seek to improve after a tough start to the season. The match is notable for the coaching faceoff between Wayne Bennett, the Rabbitohs coach and former Dolphins coach, and Kristian Woolf, the current Dolphins coach and Bennettβs protege. The game is expected to be competitive with both sides motivated to break their recent losing streaks.
Key Factors to Consider
The Dolphins have shown potential but faltered last week against the Knights, sitting just outside the top eight and needing a win to re-enter finals contention. South Sydney Rabbitohs have improved but remain inconsistent, suffering a narrow golden point loss to Melbourne last round. Key player performances include Rabbitohs winger Alex Johnston, who has scored 10 tries in his last five games and is chasing a historic try-scoring record.
The teams met in the season opener with the Rabbitohs edging the Dolphins 16-14 in a close and gritty match. Historically, the Rabbitohs have had the upper hand in recent encounters, but the Dolphins have been competitive, especially under Woolf's coaching.
The Dolphins have suffered a blow with the season-ending ACL injury to Jack Bostock, replaced by Junior Tupou on the wing. The Rabbitohs have had ongoing injury issues throughout the season but no major last-minute changes have been reported for this match.
The match was relocated to Suncorp Stadium due to Cyclone Alfred earlier in the season, where it was originally scheduled for Sydney. The game is part of a unique scheduling situation with the Broncos-Warriors game earlier the same day at the same venue. Fans should expect a dry day game with sun safety considerations. The stadium operates cashless and has strict entry requirements, but none of these factors are expected to influence performance.
Both teams are highly motivated: the Dolphins want to bounce back from a losing streak and keep their finals hopes alive, while the Rabbitohs seek to end a prolonged poor run over the last two seasons and build momentum. The coaching duel between Bennett and Woolf adds an additional psychological edge, especially for the Dolphins who want to prove their new coachβs ability against his mentor.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Dolphins: -162, South Sydney Rabbitohs: 140, Draw: 2100
Dolphins win
β β β ββ 65%
Spread
Dolphins -3.5: -115, South Sydney Rabbitohs +3.5: -115
Dolphins -3.5
β β β ββ 60%
Over/under
Over 49.5: -115, Under 49.5: -115
Over 49.5
β β β ββ 55%
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Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Dolphins 0%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Over 49.5 1%
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 49.5 at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 1.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
The Dolphins, playing at home and fighting to stay in the top eight, are favored to win by a narrow margin against the struggling Rabbitohs. The Rabbitohsβ recent form and presence of key players like Alex Johnston make the match competitive, but the Dolphins' motivation and home advantage give them the edge.
Predicted Score: Dolphins 26 – South Sydney Rabbitohs 20
Location: Netstrata Jubilee Stadium, Sydney, Australia
Game Overview
The Round 17 NRL match between St George Illawarra Dragons and Parramatta Eels promises a tightly contested battle at Netstrata Jubilee Stadium. Both teams have shown competitive form in the season with a well-matched head-to-head history. The Dragons enter as slight favorites due to home advantage and recent performance, while the Eels aim to upset with a strong defensive and counterattacking style.
Key Factors to Consider
St George Illawarra Dragons have demonstrated consistent form at home with a balanced attack and reliable defense. Parramatta Eels have been competitive on the road, with a particular strength in maintaining pressure in the latter stages of matches. Recent matches suggest both teams can score freely but also concede points under pressure.
Recent head-to-head clashes have been close, including a narrow 23-22 win for Parramatta in April 2025. Historically, matches have often been decided by small margins highlighting the evenly matched level of both sides.
No major injury report available at the moment for either team, suggesting both squads will likely be close to full strength, preserving competitive balance.
The game is played at Netstrata Jubilee Stadium, favoring the Dragons. Weather and pitch conditions are expected to be favorable with no adverse impact predicted.
Given the mid-season timing, both teams are motivated to secure points for finals positioning, with the Dragons particularly looking to capitalize on home ground advantage to boost their ladder standing.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Parramatta Eels: 131, St George Illawarra Dragons: -150, Draw: 2000
St George Illawarra Dragons
β β β ββ 65%
Spread
Parramatta Eels +3.5: -115, St George Illawarra Dragons -3.5: -115
St George Illawarra Dragons -3.5
β β β ββ 60%
Over/under
Over 47.5: -115, Under 47.5: -115
Under 47.5 points
β β β ββ 55%
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Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
St George Illawarra Dragons -0%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 47.5 3%
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 47.5 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
St George Illawarra Dragons to win a close match by a small margin, capitalizing on home advantage and slightly better recent form.
Predicted Score: St George Illawarra Dragons 24 – 20 Parramatta Eels
The Round 17 NRL clash between the Brisbane Broncos and New Zealand Warriors is set for June 28, 2025, at Suncorp Stadium. The Broncos, currently 5th on the ladder, host the 4th-placed Warriors in a highly competitive match. Both teams have shown strong form recently, with the Broncos securing back-to-back high-scoring wins at home, and the Warriors winning three of their last four games at Suncorp Stadium. Key players like Reece Walsh and Payne Haas continue to impress for the Broncos, while the Warriors welcome back Queensland forward Kurt Capewell, bolstering their lineup. The match promises to be a closely fought contest with momentum on both sides.
Key Factors to Consider
The Brisbane Broncos have been prolific at Suncorp Stadium, scoring 78 points across their last two home victories. Their form is highlighted by centre Gehamat Shibasaki with five tries in four games, and winger Josiah Karapani contributing four tries in his last two home games. The Warriors have shown resilience and success at this venue, winning three of their past four matches there, but have not beaten the Broncos at Suncorp since 2018.
Historically, the Broncos hold the edge at Suncorp Stadium over the Warriors, maintaining an unbeaten streak there against them since 2018. Recent encounters have been competitive, with the Warriors defeating the Broncos twice at Suncorp during the current season, indicating a rivalry with shifting momentum.
The Warriors have made three key lineup changes including the return of Kurt Capewell to the second-row after missing a game due to travel and recovery, Rocco Berry returning from injury, and winger Edward Kosi replacing the injured Dallin Watene-Zelezniak who is out for four to six weeks. The Broncos have named an unchanged lineup, indicating full strength availability with no significant injury concerns noted.
The match is part of a unique double-header at Suncorp Stadium with another NRL game to follow, which could influence crowd energy and atmosphere. Weather conditions are not specified but playing at home with strong crowd support typically favors the Broncos. The referee and officials are appointed as Adam Gee and team, with no indications of external controversies.
The Broncos are chasing a third consecutive win to solidify their standing, riding momentum from recent comebacks and strong offensive displays. The Warriors aim to rebound from a shock loss to the Panthers, with added motivation from key players returning and the opportunity to maintain their strong record at Suncorp Stadium. Both teams are positioned closely on the ladder, intensifying the stakes for this matchup.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Brisbane Broncos: -186, New Zealand Warriors: 158, Draw: 2100
Brisbane Broncos
β β β β β 72%
Spread
Brisbane Broncos: -5.5 -125, New Zealand Warriors: 5.5 -105
Brisbane Broncos to cover -5.5
β β β ββ 60%
Over/under
Over: 48.5 -115, Under: 48.5 -115
Under 48.5
β β β ββ 58%
Top EV Betting Odds
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Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Brisbane Broncos -2%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 48.5 8%
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 48.5 at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given the Broncos' current momentum at home, their ability to score heavily, and the Warriors' close but slightly inconsistent recent form at this venue, the prediction leans toward a narrow Brisbane Broncos victory. However, the Warriors' recent successes and lineup reinforcements suggest it will be a competitive and tight game.
Predicted Score: Brisbane Broncos 26 – New Zealand Warriors 20
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Location: Wintrust Arena, Chicago, Illinois, United States
Game Overview
This middleweight PFL World Tournament semifinal features Dalton Rosta (10-1, 1-0 PFL) against Aaron Jeffery (16-5, 1-0 PFL). Rosta, known as 'Hercules', is an explosive fighter with a strong ground-and-pound game and recently demonstrated submission skills with a brabo choke in the quarterfinals. Jeffery previously defeated Rosta in 2023 by neutralizing his takedown attempts with sharp sprawls and accumulating points with clinch strikes. This bout is pivotal as Rosta looks to avenge his only career loss and advance towards a world title shot.
Key Factors to Consider
Dalton Rosta has been dominant in his recent performances, showcasing improvements in submission grappling alongside his traditional ground-and-pound style. Aaron Jeffery has a proven defensive approach, especially in takedown defense, which was effective in their prior encounter. Both fighters enter this match with momentum, each having won their quarterfinal matches in the tournament.
They have fought once before in 2023, with Aaron Jeffery winning by effectively countering Rostaβs takedown attempts and maintaining control through clinch strikes. Rosta has since adjusted his approach, improving his submission skills and tactical versatility in preparation for this rematch.
No reported injuries for either fighter leading up to this bout, both appear to be in peak condition and fully ready to compete.
The fight takes place at Wintrust Arena in Chicago, which may slightly favor Rosta who fights out of American Top Team and is known to perform well in high-stakes environments. Jefferyβs Canadian background and experience make him comfortable in major venues as well. Both fighters are highly motivated.
Rostaβs motivation is fueled by his desire for redemption after his only career loss to Jeffery, adding a psychological edge. Jeffery aims to reinforce his dominance and secure a path to the title, giving him equally high drive.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Dalton Rosta: -140, Aaron Jeffery: +120
Dalton Rosta
β β β β β 72%
Spread
Dalton Rosta -1.5: -110, Aaron Jeffery +1.5: -110
Dalton Rosta -1.5
β β β ββ 65%
Over/under
Over 2.5 rounds: -115, Under 2.5 rounds: -105
Over 2.5 rounds
β β β ββ 60%
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Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Home 0%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
N/A
π₯ Best Value Pick: Home at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Dalton Rosta is predicted to narrowly win this rematch by leveraging improved submission skills and adjusting his takedown approach to bypass Jefferyβs defense. The fight is expected to be competitive with Rosta using precise grappling and explosiveness to control the pace.
Predicted Score: Dalton Rosta wins via submission in Round 3
Biaggio Ali Walsh (2-0) faces Ronnie Gibbs (1-0) in a lightweight semifinal bout at the 2025 PFL World Tournament 7 at Wintrust Arena. Walsh, the 26-year-old grandson of Muhammad Ali, enters undefeated and slightly taller with a reach advantage. Gibbs, 31, is also undefeated professionally but has one less fight than Walsh. Both fighters have one KO/TKO win and no submission wins. The bout represents a critical step towards the PFL tournament finals.
Key Factors to Consider
Ali Walsh has a perfect 2-0 record with a KO and a decision win, showing versatility and durability. Gibbs is 1-0 with a KO victory. Walsh's experience in two fights versus Gibbs's single outing gives Walsh a measurable edge in ring time at the professional level.
This will be their first meeting, so there is no direct head-to-head history.
No reports of injuries for either fighter leading into this bout.
The fight takes place in a neutral venue under PFL tournament rules. Ali Walsh has notable community support, including from the Muslim community, potentially boosting his motivation. The bout is part of a high-stakes PFL semifinal night featuring multiple key fights.
Given their undefeated statuses and the tournament implications, both fighters are highly motivated. Ali Walsh carries the legacy of Muhammad Ali which adds psychological weight, while Gibbs will look to prove himself on a bigger stage.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Biaggio Ali Walsh: -1100, Ronnie Gibbs: 700
Biaggio Ali Walsh
β β β β β 85%
Spread
Biaggio Ali Walsh: -1.5 (-110), Ronnie Gibbs: +1.5 (-110)
Ali Walsh to win by 2 or more rounds
β β β β β 75%
Over/under
Over 2.5 rounds: -115, Under 2.5 rounds: -105
Under 2.5 rounds (fight likely to end before full distance or in decisive rounds)
β β β β β 70%
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Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Biaggio Ali Walsh -3%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
N/A
π₯ Best Value Pick: Biaggio Ali Walsh at -3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Biaggio Ali Walsh is favored to win due to his greater professional experience, reach, and recent performances. The fight is expected to be competitive, with Walsh likely controlling the pace and potentially winning by decision or late stoppage.
Predicted Score: Ali Walsh wins by unanimous decision or 3rd round TKO
The bantamweight semifinal bout at the 2025 PFL World Tournament features former teammates and Bellator bantamweight champions Raufeon Stots and Sergio Pettis. Both fighters bring extensive experience and championship pedigree to the cage. Pettis, with a record of 23-7, is coming off a year-long hiatus and two straight losses but is known for elite boxing skills and star power. Stots, at 21-2, is a strong wrestler with quick striking combinations and a calculated fight style, having notable wins over top opponents, though he suffered two significant knockout losses in the past. This matchup is highly anticipated due to their shared history and contrasting fighting styles, with the winner advancing to the PFL finals[1][2].
Key Factors to Consider
Individually, both fighters have shown top-tier skills. Pettis excelled in UFC and Bellator, notably for his boxing, but recent losses and inactivity may affect his sharpness. Stots is known for his wrestling credentials and tactical approach, with success in PFL so far, displaying resilience and patience in fights. Both fighters have proven their ability to finish fights and dominate rounds, but momentum favors Stots currently[2].
No direct previous fights between Raufeon Stots and Sergio Pettis are recorded, but they share a history as former teammates and Bellator champions, adding an emotional and strategic layer to this bout[1].
No public reports of current injuries for either fighter leading into this match have been noted, indicating both are expected to compete at full health[1][2].
The fight takes place in Chicago at Wintrust Arena, a neutral venue for both fighters. Media attention and fan interest are high due to their shared past and championship statuses. Pettis' one-year hiatus and momentum loss contrasts with Stots' recent activity and focus within PFL. There are no indications of environmental or logistical concerns affecting either fighter[1][2][3][4][5].
Pettis seeks to reclaim his winning form and break his losing streak, motivated by the opportunity to advance in the PFL and rejuvenate his career. Stots aims to consolidate his rising status in PFL, leveraging his recent successes and wrestling pedigree to secure his place in the finals. Both fighters have strong incentives, but Stots' current momentum and activity may provide an edge in motivation and readiness[2].
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Raufeon Stots: -175, Sergio Pettis: 145
Raufeon Stots
β β β ββ 65%
Spread
Stots -1.5 rounds: -120, Pettis +1.5 rounds: 100
Stots -1.5 rounds
β β β ββ 60%
Over/under
Over 2.5 rounds: -110, Under 2.5 rounds: -110
Under 2.5 rounds
β β β ββ 55%
Top EV Betting Odds
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Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Raufeon Stots -1%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
N/A
π₯ Best Value Pick: Raufeon Stots at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Raufeon Stots is slightly favored to win this tightly contested bantamweight bout due to his recent activity, wrestling strength, and fight IQ, despite Pettis' elite boxing and championship experience. Stots' ability to control the fight on the ground and dictate pace should give him an advantage, but Pettis' striking power keeps the fight competitive and potentially volatile.
Predicted Score: Stots wins by decision or late stoppage in round 3
The PFL World Tournament 7 Semifinals features a highly anticipated middleweight MMA bout between Dalton Rosta and Aaron Jeffery. Both fighters are 1-0 in the PFL season, with Rosta holding a 10-1 overall record and Jeffery 16-5. This matchup is a rematch, with Jeffery having won their first encounter in 2023 by using effective takedown defense and clinch striking to neutralize Rosta's ground-and-pound style. Rosta has since evolved his game, demonstrated by a recent submission victory, and is highly motivated to avenge his only loss and advance to contend for the world title.
Key Factors to Consider
Dalton Rosta appears in top form, showing explosiveness and improved submission skills in his recent fights, notably submitting Sadibou Sy with a brabo choke. Aaron Jeffery has demonstrated effective takedown defense and clinch striking, using sharp sprawls and point accumulation strategies to outpoint opponents, including Rosta previously.
In their previous fight in 2023, Aaron Jeffery defeated Dalton Rosta by utilizing superior takedown defense and clinch control to negate Rosta's grappling. Rosta lost that fight but has since refined his approach and is seeking redemption in this rematch.
No public reports of injuries affecting either fighter leading up to this bout, indicating both are likely entering the fight at full health.
The fight is part of the PFL 2025 World Tournament semifinals with high stakes. Both fighters have strong motivation to secure a spot in the finals. The event is broadcast live on ESPN and ESPN+, suggesting a high-profile spotlight.
Dalton Rosta is highly motivated to avenge his only career defeat and to cement his status as a world title contender. Aaron Jeffery aims to defend his previous victory and continue his momentum in the tournament. Both fighters are locked in mentally and physically for this critical matchup.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Dalton Rosta: -140, Aaron Jeffery: 110
Dalton Rosta
β β β ββ 68%
Spread
Dalton Rosta: -1.5, Aaron Jeffery: +1.5
Dalton Rosta to win by more than 1.5 rounds
β β β ββ 62%
Over/under
over_1.5_rounds: 1.85, under_1.5_rounds: 1.95
Over 1.5 rounds
β β β ββ 57%
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Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Dalton Rosta 1%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
N/A
π₯ Best Value Pick: Dalton Rosta at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 1.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Dalton Rosta is favored to win due to his recent improvements, well-rounded skill set including submission ability, and motivation to avenge his loss. However, Aaron Jefferyβs proven takedown defense and clinch effectiveness make him a formidable opponent likely to make the fight competitive.
Predicted Score: Dalton Rosta wins via submission in Round 2