Match Analysis: Toronto FC vs Portland Timbers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-28
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: BMO Field, Toronto, Canada
Game Overview
Toronto FC hosts Portland Timbers in an MLS clash at BMO Field. Toronto FC, currently 14th in the standings, struggles with form, having lost their last 5 matches and averaging 1.6 goals scored and conceded per game recently. Portland Timbers sit 4th, showing much better recent form with 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches, averaging 1 goal scored and conceded per match. Historically, the two teams are evenly matched with 5 wins each in their last 13 encounters and 3 draws, averaging about 3.36 goals per match overall.
Key Factors to Consider
- Toronto FC has had a poor recent run with 5 consecutive losses and a low Asian handicap win rate of 20%, scoring and conceding around 1.6 goals per game. Portland Timbers are in strong form, unbeaten in their last 5 matches with 4 wins and 1 draw, averaging 1.0 goals for and against per game, and a similarly low handicap win rate but better results overall.
- In 13 matches since 2007, Toronto and Portland each have 5 wins with 3 draws. Recent form favors Portland, having won 4 and drawn 1 of their last 5 encounters. The head-to-head average goals per game is high at 3.36, with over 2.5 goals occurring in 50% of matches. Both teams have been competitive, but Portlandβs recent dominance hints at an edge.
- No specific injury information is provided in the available data, suggesting no major absences or that data is unavailable at this time.
- The match is at Torontoβs home ground, BMO Field, where Toronto usually sees moderate scoring games. Portland travels with good momentum and a higher league position, which might boost their confidence.
- Portland Timbers are motivated to maintain their strong position in the standings and continue their winning streak. Toronto FC seeks to end their losing streak and improve their position, but recent form and confidence are low.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Portland Timbers: 1.35, Toronto FC: 2, Draw: 2.4 | Portland Timbers win | β β β β β 75% |
| Spread | Portland Timbers: -0.25 at 1.02, Toronto FC: +25 at 1.22 | Portland Timbers to cover -0.25 spread | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | Over 2.75: 1, Under 2.75: 1.2 | Under 2.75 goals | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Portland Timbers 13% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.75 19% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 2.75 at 19% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 23% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Portland Timbers are favored to win given their superior recent form, higher league ranking, and better head-to-head results over the last five matches. The game is likely to be competitive, with a moderate number of goals expected.
Predicted Score: Portland Timbers 2 – 1 Toronto FC