Match Analysis: Jesus Pinedo vs Gabriel Alves Braga – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-06-12
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Nashville Municipal Auditorium, Nashville, Tennessee

Game Overview

Featherweight semifinal match for the 2025 PFL World Tournament. Jesus Pinedo (age 28, record 25-6-1, reigning 2023 PFL champ) faces Gabriel Alves Braga (age 26/27, record 17-2). This is their third meeting; previous bouts were split 1-1, with Braga winning a split decision in April 2023 and Pinedo winning by third-round TKO in November 2023 en route to his championship. Both have shown strong recent form, dispatching recent opponents quickly[1][4][5].

Key Factors to Consider

• Pinedo is the more experienced and credentialed fighter (2023 PFL champion), with 25 wins, 15 by KO/TKO, strong striking, and a proven ability to finish fights. Braga is a rising contender with 17 wins (7 by KO/TKO), solid grappling, and a recent record of quick finishes[4]. Both have shown resilience and adaptability.
• Direct record is 1-1: Braga won a split decision in April 2023, Pinedo won by third-round TKO in November 2023 for the title[1][4]. Both have competitive styles; Pinedo has the edge in KO power, while Braga has shown strong grappling and decision victories.
• No public reports of significant injuries affecting either fighter.
• Fight is at featherweight (145 lbs), both made weight comfortably. Event is a semifinal for a prestigious PFL tournament, increasing pressure and stakes[3][5].
• High—winner advances to the PFL featherweight finals and a possible $1 million prize. Both fighters have proven to rise to the occasion in high-stakes bouts.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	home: -215, away: 175	Jesus Pinedo	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Jesus Pinedo -5%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Jesus Pinedo at -5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Jesus Pinedo is favored due to championship experience, proven KO power, and a slight edge in recent head-to-head, but Gabriel Alves Braga is a live underdog with excellent grappling and versatility. Expect a closely contested fight with Pinedo’s power and experience likely to be decisive.

Predicted Score: Jesus Pinedo wins by KO/TKO in rounds 2 or 3

Match Analysis: Joseph Luciano vs Sarek Shields – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-06-12
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Nashville Municipal Auditorium

Game Overview

Welterweight alternate bout in the semifinals of the 2025 PFL World Tournament. Joseph Luciano (10-3) is a seasoned Australian fighter with a deep experience edge. Sarek Shields (6-2) is an American prospect from Portland, Oregon, training out of Victory MMA. Both are looking to make a statement for deeper playoff positioning.

Key Factors to Consider

• Joseph Luciano has a stronger overall record (10-3 vs 6-2) and more experience in big fights. Sarek Shields is younger and less experienced but has shown finishing ability with 3 of his 6 wins by submission and 2 by decision. Luciano's edge comes from his higher-level competition and wins.
• No prior head-to-head matchups documented.
• No major injuries reported for either fighter leading up to the bout.
• Event is part of a high-stakes semifinal tournament night, with fighters vying for not just a win but tournament advancement.
• Both are highly motivated for tournament advancement, but Luciano's experience may help handle the pressure better.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Joseph Luciano: -290, Sarek Shields: +230	Joseph Luciano	★★★★☆ 72%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Joseph Luciano -0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Joseph Luciano at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Joseph Luciano is favored to win due to his experience and record. Sarek Shields poses a submission threat but is less tested at this level.

Predicted Score: Joseph Luciano wins by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

Match Analysis: Jason Danner vs Nathan Gilmore – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: June 12, 2025
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Nashville, Tennessee

Game Overview

Jason Danner vs. Nathan Gilmore is a bantamweight showcase bout in the PFL 2025 World Tournament Semifinals. Danner, with a record of 2-0-0, faces Gilmore, who has 4 wins and 5 losses. Given Danner's undefeated record, he appears to be the favorite.

Key Factors to Consider

• Jason Danner is relatively new to the PFL scene with a perfect record, while Nathan Gilmore has more experience but a less impressive win-loss ratio.
• This is their first meeting, so there is no prior head-to-head data.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• The fight is part of a larger tournament, which could affect fighters' strategies.
• Both fighters are motivated to win, but Danner's undefeated status might give him an edge.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Danner: -300, Gilmore: +240	Jason Danner	★★★★☆ 70%

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Jason Danner -7%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Jason Danner at -7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Jason Danner is likely to win due to his undefeated record and Gilmore's less impressive win-loss ratio.

Predicted Score: N/A

Match Analysis: Logan Storley vs Masayuki Kikuiri – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: June 12, 2025
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Nashville

Game Overview

Logan Storley, a former Bellator Champion, faces Masayuki Kikuiri in the 2025 PFL World Tournament Semifinals. Storley is favored to win, given his experience and past performances.

Key Factors to Consider

• Logan Storley has a strong background in MMA, with a record of 17-3. Masayuki Kikuiri has a record of 11-2-1.
• There is no recent head-to-head data between these fighters.
• No injury reports are available for either fighter.
• The match is part of the PFL World Tournament, which may influence the fighters' strategies and motivation.
• Both fighters are highly motivated to advance in the tournament.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Logan Storley: -725, Masayuki Kikuiri: +525	Logan Storley	★★★★☆ 80%

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Logan Storley -3%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Logan Storley at -3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Logan Storley is likely to win based on his experience and past performances.

Predicted Score: Decision or TKO/KO in favor of Logan Storley

Match Analysis: Mukhamed Berkhamov vs Kendly St. Louis – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: June 12, 2025
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Nashville

Game Overview

The upcoming MMA match between Mukhamed Berkhamov and Kendly St. Louis is part of the PFL 2025 World Tournament. Berkhamov is favored to win with odds of -260, while St. Louis is at +200.

Key Factors to Consider

• Berkhamov is considered a strong favorite due to his past performances and skillset. St. Louis, known as 'The Highlander,' has a decent record but faces a tough opponent.
• There is no previous head-to-head match between the two fighters.
• No recent injuries reported for either fighter.
• The Nashville venue might provide a neutral environment for both fighters.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, given the tournament's stakes.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Mukhamed Berkhamov: -260, Kendly St. Louis: +200	Mukhamed Berkhamov	★★★★☆ 80%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Mukhamed Berkhamov 1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Mukhamed Berkhamov at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 2.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Mukhamed Berkhamov is likely to win due to his favored odds and past performances.

Predicted Score: Not applicable for MMA matches

Match Analysis: Alexei Pergande vs Mike Bardsley – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-06-12
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Nashville Municipal Auditorium, Nashville, Tennessee, United States

Game Overview

This PFL prelims bout features undefeated Alexei Pergande (5-0) vs. Mike Bardsley (5-1) in the featherweight division. The fight is part of the 2025 PFL World Tournament 5: Semifinals event. Pergande is a rising local talent, while Bardsley brings a strong but less formidable record.

Key Factors to Consider

• Alexei Pergande is undefeated at 5-0, showing strong early-career momentum and finishing ability. Mike Bardsley is 5-1, with his only loss likely coming against quality opposition. Pergande has a noticeable height and reach advantage (183 cm vs. 170 cm for Bardsley).
• No previous match history between Pergande and Bardsley.
• No reported injuries for either fighter as of fight week.
• Pergande is fighting close to home (Tennessee), which may provide a slight edge in crowd support. The bout is a prelim, so high stakes for both fighters to impress.
• High motivation for both fighters, but especially for Pergande as an undefeated local prospect seeking to boost his profile in PFL.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Alexei Pergande: -701, Mike Bardsley: 501	Alexei Pergande	★★★★☆ 85%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Alexei Pergande 1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Alexei Pergande at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Alexei Pergande is favored to win based on undefeated record, physical advantages, and home crowd presence. Bardsley is an underdog with upset potential, but Pergande is the more likely victor.

Predicted Score: Pergande by unanimous decision or late-round finish (most likely: Pergande by decision, confidence >80%)