Match Analysis: Jason Jackson vs Thad Jean – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-06-13
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: PFL World Tournament (Not specified, main event likely in major arena)

Game Overview

This is a 2025 PFL World Tournament Welterweight Semifinals bout between Jason Jackson (former Bellator Welterweight Champion, 19-5-0) and Thad Jean (undefeated rising star, 9-0-0). Jackson brings world-class experience and composure, while Jean has knockout power and significant momentum. This fight is seen as a classic matchup of experience versus youth and aggression[2][3].

Key Factors to Consider

• Jason Jackson has a proven track record in high-level competition, including a Bellator title, and has faced tougher opposition. Thad Jean is undefeated but has less experience against top-tier competition. Jackson’s finishing rate is solid, but Jean’s knockout ratio is higher[3].
• No prior head-to-head record between Jason Jackson and Thad Jean[1].
• No major publicized injuries reported for either fighter leading into the bout.
• This is a high-stakes semifinal in a major tournament, likely to be televised internationally. Both fighters are highly motivated, with Jackson aiming to reclaim his championship status and Jean aiming to maintain his unbeaten record[2][5].
• Motivation is high for both: Jackson wants to reassert himself at the top, while Jean seeks to prove himself against elite competition and maintain his undefeated streak[2][5].

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Jason Jackson: -210, Thad Jean: 170	Jason Jackson to win	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	Not specified by bookmakers; inferred: Jackson -3.5 (favorite by decision or late finish)	Jackson covers (wins by decision or late finish)	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Not specified by bookmakers; inferred: Over 2.5 rounds	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Jason Jackson -1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Jason Jackson at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Jason Jackson is favored due to his experience, composure, and proven ability in high-level fights. Thad Jean, while dangerous, has not faced the same caliber of opponents as Jackson. Jackson’s technical skills and ability to handle pressure are expected to be the difference-makers[2][3][5].

Predicted Score: Jackson wins by unanimous decision or late TKO (4th or 5th round), though a Jean knockout is a live underdog possibility.

Match Analysis: Magomed Umalatov vs Anthony Ivy – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: June 12, 2025
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Nashville Municipal Auditorium

Game Overview

Magomed Umalatov faces Anthony Ivy in a Welterweight bout at the PFL 2025 WT Semifinals. This crucial match pits two skilled fighters against each other, with Umalatov holding a strong record and being favored to win.

Key Factors to Consider

• Magomed Umalatov, with a 17-1-0 record, is considered the stronger competitor due to his impressive win-loss record. Anthony Ivy faces a tough opponent but may capitalize on Umalatov's recent performances.
• There is no recorded head-to-head match between the two fighters, making this a first encounter.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• The fight is part of the PFL Semifinals, with both fighters motivated to advance.
• Both fighters are highly motivated to win, as this is a crucial stage in the tournament.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	-1205 for Magomed Umalatov, 755 for Anthony Ivy	Magomed Umalatov	★★★★☆ 85%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Magomed Umalatov -8%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Magomed Umalatov at -8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Magomed Umalatov is predicted to win due to his superior record and experience.

Predicted Score: Not applicable for MMA

Match Analysis: Jesus Pinedo vs Gabriel Alves Braga – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: June 12, 2025
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Nashville Municipal Auditorium

Game Overview

This is a featherweight semifinal match in the PFL 2025 World Tournament between Jesus Pinedo, the 2023 PFL Featherweight Champion, and Gabriel Alves Braga. Both fighters have a history of competing against each other, currently standing at 1-1.

Key Factors to Consider

• Jesus Pinedo is 25-6-1 in his career, with a recent win over Borch by first-round KO. Gabriel Alves Braga is 17-2, having beaten his last opponent by first-round submission.
• The two fighters are 1-1 against each other, with Pinedo winning by third-round TKO in their most recent matchup for the title.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• The match is part of the PFL tournament format, which could lead to increased motivation for both fighters to progress.
• Both fighters are highly motivated to win and advance in the tournament.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Gabriel Alves Braga: 175, Jesus Pinedo: -215	Jesus Pinedo	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Jesus Pinedo -12%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Jesus Pinedo at -12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Jesus Pinedo is favored to win based on his recent performances and the fact that he holds a title win over Braga.

Predicted Score: Jesus Pinedo to win by decision or TKO

Match Analysis: Joseph Luciano vs Sarek Shields – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-06-12
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Nashville Municipal Auditorium

Game Overview

Joseph Luciano and Sarek Shields will face off in a welterweight alternate bout during the 2025 PFL World Tournament 5 Semifinals. Luciano, with a 10-3 record, is favored against Shields, who holds a 6-2 record.

Key Factors to Consider

• Luciano has a more extensive experience, with 13 fights under his belt compared to Shields' 8. Luciano's opponents have generally been more experienced, which could be an advantage.
• This is the first time these fighters will meet, so there is no prior head-to-head data.
• No recent injuries have been reported for either fighter.
• The match is part of a high-stakes tournament, and both fighters will be highly motivated. However, Luciano's experience in larger tournaments might give him an edge.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, but Luciano's experience in high-pressure situations could be a deciding factor.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Joseph Luciano: -290, Sarek Shields: 230	Joseph Luciano	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Joseph Luciano -99%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

⚠️ No clear +EV edge found for this game.

Predicted Outcome

Joseph Luciano is predicted to win based on his experience and past performances.

Predicted Score: N/A

Match Analysis: Jason Danner vs Nathan Gilmore – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: June 13, 2025
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Nashville Municipal Auditorium

Game Overview

Jason Danner, an undefeated fighter from Tennessee, faces off against Nathan Gilmore in a bantamweight bout during the PFL 2025 World Tournament Semifinals. This match is significant as it determines who will advance to the finals.

Key Factors to Consider

• Jason Danner is undefeated with a 2-0 record, while Nathan Gilmore has a 4-5 record. Danner's recent performance and undefeated status might give him an edge.
• There is no recorded head-to-head history between these fighters.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• The match takes place in Nashville, which could favor Danner due to local support.
• Both fighters are motivated to win, but Danner's undefeated record might add pressure.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Jason Danner: -300, Nathan Gilmore: 240	Jason Danner	High

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Jason Danner -99%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

⚠️ No clear +EV edge found for this game.

Predicted Outcome

Jason Danner is likely to win due to his undefeated record and recent performance.

Predicted Score: Decision or TKO in favor of Jason Danner