Match Analysis: Grêmio vs Fortaleza – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-29
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre, Brazil
Game Overview
Grêmio hosts Fortaleza in a Campeonato Brasileiro match where both teams have had mixed recent performances, but Grêmio has a historical edge at home.
Key Factors to Consider
- Grêmio shows moderate home strength with 40% wins and 40% draws in recent matches; Fortaleza struggles away with only 20% wins, 80% combined draws/losses recently. Both teams average about 1.4 goals per game in 2025.
- In 16 recent encounters, Grêmio won 6, Fortaleza 4, and 6 drawn matches. Average goals per match stand at around 2.0. Grêmio tends to have a slight advantage at home historically.
- No critical injury info available, presumed both teams have near full strength.
- Home advantage at Arena do Grêmio benefits the host; no unusual external conditions reported.
- Grêmio currently ranks better (14th) than Fortaleza (19th), likely increasing home side's motivation to secure points.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Grêmio 120, Fortaleza 235, Draw 230 | Grêmio | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Spread | Grêmio -0.25 -110, Fortaleza +25 -110 | Grêmio -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 63% |
| Over/under | Over 2.25 -110, Under 2.25 -110 | Under 2.25 | ★★★☆☆ 57% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Grêmio 23% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.25 11% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Grêmio at 23% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 19.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Grêmio to win the match outright, with a close contest expected resulting in a moderately scored game.
Predicted Score: 2-1