Match Analysis: St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-24
- Time: 11:46 PM UTC
- Location: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, Missouri
Game Overview
The San Diego Padres (55-47) visit the St. Louis Cardinals (52-51) in a pivotal late July MLB matchup. Both teams are close in standings and fighting for playoff positioning. The Padres have struggled offensively recently, while the Cardinals have been inconsistent as well. Pitching matchups feature Padres' Yu Darvish, who has underperformed this season, against Cardinals' Sonny Gray, who shows moderate effectiveness.
Key Factors to Consider
- Padres are 55-47 with recent offensive struggles, posting a team slugging percentage near .375 and multiple UNDER games recently. Cardinals are 52-51 but have lost 5 of their last 6 and have inconsistent pitching support.
- Yu Darvish has a career 2-4 record with a 3.20 ERA against Cardinals. Cardinals have a slight edge in recent matchups and hold home field advantage at Busch Stadium.
- No major injuries to key players reported for either team impacting lineup or pitching staffs significantly.
- Warm weather and wind conditions at Busch Stadium could favor runs scored but given recent hitting issues, this may be limited. The Cardinals benefit from home environment.
- Both teams are near the playoff bubble, making this a high-stakes game. The Cardinals, being at home and in a tough recent stretch, likely have higher urgency to secure a win.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | San Diego Padres +116, St. Louis Cardinals -134 | St. Louis Cardinals | β β β β β 70% |
Spread | San Diego Padres +1.5 -184, St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 +152 | St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | Over 8.5 +100, Under 8.5 -122 | Under 8.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | St. Louis Cardinals 1% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 8.5 0% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: St. Louis Cardinals at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 1.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
St. Louis Cardinals moneyline win, Cardinals covering -1.5 spread, game total under 8.5 runs
Predicted Score: St. Louis Cardinals 5 – San Diego Padres 3