Match Analysis: Juventude vs Sport Recife – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-14
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: Estádio Alfredo Jaconi
Game Overview
The match between Juventude and Sport Recife is a Campeonato Brasileiro Série A fixture, scheduled for July 14, 2025. Juventude, currently fighting against relegation, hosts Sport Recife, a team struggling with poor form and recent relegation threats. Both teams are in precarious situations in the league, with Juventude looking to capitalize on home advantage and recent psychological edge from a prior victory over Sport Recife.
Key Factors to Consider
- Juventude has been involved in a challenging season but managed a morale-boosting win over Sport Recife in the recent Campeonato Brasileiro Feminino, which although a different category, might psychologically affect the men's squad. Sport Recife has been underperforming, indicated by their relegation in the women's league and poor attacking and defensive stats (7 goals scored, 30 conceded). Their recent form suggests difficulties in both defense and attack.
- The recent encounter on June 7th 2025 saw Juventude defeating Sport Recife 1-0, marking a psychological advantage. Historical data shows Juventude's incremental growth in Brazil's top division, now in their 2nd consecutive season, while Sport Recife is battling to avoid a similar fate.
- No specific injury data is available from the search results for either team, so the squads are assumed relatively fit.
- The game venue is Juventude's home stadium, Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, providing them a home crowd advantage. There is no indication of adverse weather or other conditions.
- Juventude is motivated to secure points to avoid relegation and improve their league standing. Sport Recife, having poor form and recent setbacks, have a strong motivation to turn their fortunes around but may be under psychological pressure.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Juventude: 130, Sport Recife: 220, Draw: 225 | Juventude Win | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | Juventude: -0.25 -102, Sport Recife: +25 -118 | Juventude -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 2.25: 102, Under 2.25: -122 | Under 2.25 Goals | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Juventude -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.25 0% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Juventude is favored to win this match due to home advantage, recent head-to-head success, and Sport Recife's poor recent performance and relegation struggles.
Predicted Score: 1-0