Match Analysis: Cruzeiro vs Grêmio – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-13
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto
Game Overview
Cruzeiro hosts Grêmio in a Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A encounter. Cruzeiro is ranked highest at home this season, unbeaten in 6 matches overall and undefeated at home for 12 consecutive games. Grêmio, while historically strong, has a mixed recent head-to-head record and is playing away.
Key Factors to Consider
- Cruzeiro has shown excellent home form, scoring 7 goals in their last 5 matches and conceding few. Grêmio's defense has been vulnerable, conceding penalties frequently and demonstrating less consistent away results.
- Overall, Cruzeiro has 21 wins, Grêmio 18, and 10 draws in direct matches. However, Grêmio currently leads 14-10-8 in more recent contexts, though this may not reflect recent trends. Cruzeiro's home strength and unbeaten streak are significant.
- No major injuries reported in available sources. Lineups will be confirmed closer to kickoff.
- Cruzeiro is ranked 1 at home, with strong support. Grêmio faces an away disadvantage but has historical resilience.
- Cruzeiro is unbeaten at home and motivated to maintain their spot. Grêmio seeks to improve league position and end their rival's home streak.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Cruzeiro: -150, Draw: 265, Grêmio: 460 | Cruzeiro to win | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | Cruzeiro: -0.75 -112, Grêmio: 75 -108 | Cruzeiro -0.75 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over: 2.25 102, Under: 2.25 -122 | Under 2.25 goals | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Cruzeiro -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.25 13% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 15.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Cruzeiro, due to stellar home form and strong recent results, is favored. Grêmio's away struggles and defensive issues make an upset less likely.
Predicted Score: Cruzeiro 1-0 Grêmio