Match Analysis: Herbeth Sousa vs Michel Lima – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-07-12
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: LFA 212

Game Overview

Herbeth Sousa enters as the strong favorite against Michel Lima in this Bantamweight matchup at LFA 212. The fight is scheduled for 3 rounds with both fighters making the 135 lbs weight limit.

Key Factors to Consider

• Sousa has demonstrated consistent recent form and is favored by bookmakers with a strong 69% implied win probability. Lima is seen as an underdog but has the potential for an upset.
• No direct H2H data available, but betting lines strongly favor Sousa, indicating superior perceived skill or record.
• No current injury reports affecting either fighter, suggesting both are at full health for this contest.
• No notable external influences such as venue bias or travel fatigue reported; the fight is in a neutral environment.
• Sousa likely motivated to maintain dominance as favorite; Lima motivated as underdog to prove upset potential.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Sousa -280, Lima +200	Sousa	★★★★☆ 74%
Spread	Sousa -1.5 rounds -150, Lima +1.5 rounds +130	Sousa -1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds -110, Under 2.5 rounds -110	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Home 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Home at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 100% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Herbeth Sousa to win by decision

Predicted Score: Sousa wins by unanimous decision after 3 rounds

Match Analysis: Daniel Araujo vs Thomas Bryan – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-07-12
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Brasília, DF, Brazil

Game Overview

Daniel Araujo vs Thomas Bryan is a mixed martial arts bout featured at LFA 212. Araujo is undefeated with a 7-0 record and notable KO/TKO power, while Bryan has a 7-3 record. The fight is expected to showcase Araujo's finishing ability and Bryan's resilience.

Key Factors to Consider

• Daniel Araujo has been dominant recently with 7 straight wins including multiple first-round stoppages, indicating high finishing capability. Thomas Bryan, with a record of 7-3, has shown competitiveness but fewer finishes against top competition.
• No previous head-to-head matchups exist between Daniel Araujo and Thomas Bryan.
• No publicly reported injuries affecting either fighter leading into this bout.
• The fight takes place in Brasília, Brazil, which may favor Araujo slightly due to regional familiarity and crowd support.
• Araujo's undefeated status and rising profile provide strong motivation to maintain dominance. Bryan seeks to upset and improve his standing, but the motivation gap favors Araujo.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	home: -650, away: 425	Daniel Araujo	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	home_spread: -1.5 @ -120, away_spread: +1.5 @ +100	Daniel Araujo -1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 72%
Over/under	over_2.5: +150, under_2.5: -180	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Daniel Araujo -10%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 1%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Daniel Araujo to win by decision or stoppage, controlling the pace and utilizing striking power.

Predicted Score: Daniel Araujo wins by unanimous decision or stoppage before round 3

Match Analysis: Joao Pedro Moreira vs Leonardo Cerboni – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-07-12
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Legacy Fighting Alliance

Game Overview

Joao Pedro Moreira faces Leonardo Cerboni in a bantamweight MMA bout. Moreira holds a strong record of 7-1 with a well-rounded skill set and recent momentum, while Cerboni stands at 6-1 with solid striking and grappling but less activity in recent months.

Key Factors to Consider

• Moreira is coming off multiple recent wins including a TKO in late 2024 and unanimous decision victories, showing consistent form. Cerboni’s last fight was a TKO win in November 2024 after a prior split decision loss in 2023.
• This appears to be their first professional matchup, with no direct H2H history available.
• No reported injuries or fitness concerns for either fighter at this time.
• The fight is held at a neutral venue within Legacy Fighting Alliance, with no significant home advantage or external distractions noted.
• Moreira seems highly motivated to maintain his upward trajectory in a competitive division, while Cerboni aims to rebound strongly from his 2023 loss and prove his consistency.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Joao Pedro Moreira: -350, Leonardo Cerboni: 275	Joao Pedro Moreira	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	Moreira -1.5: -115, Cerboni +1.5: -105	Moreira -1.5	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 1.5 rounds: -110, Under 1.5 rounds: -120	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Joao Pedro Moreira -5%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 10%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Joao Pedro Moreira to win by decision

Predicted Score: Joao Pedro Moreira wins by unanimous decision in 3 rounds