Match Analysis: Gabriella Fernandes vs Julija Stoliarenko – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-09
• Time: 8:00 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas

Game Overview

This Women's Flyweight bout features Gabriella Fernandes, a 10-3 fighter with a strong striking output and defense, against Julija Stoliarenko, who holds an 11-9-2 record but has shown less consistency and lower striking effectiveness.

Key Factors to Consider

• Fernandes has a higher significant strike rate (3.46/min) and connect percentage (46%) compared to Stoliarenko's 2.49/min at 39%. Fernandes also has better strike defense, absorbing 5.50/min but preventing 49%, while Stoliarenko absorbs 4.54/min and prevents 46%.
• No previous bouts between the two fighters, making this a pure matchup analysis based on styles and recent form.
• No reported injuries for either fighter impacting this bout.
• Fight is at UFC Apex in Las Vegas, neutral venue with no apparent home advantage. Both fighters are similarly aged (31 vs. 32) and weight-matched at 125 lbs with similar reach.
• Fernandes holds a superior UFC record (2-2 vs. 2-6) suggesting better current form and confidence; Stoliarenko’s recent UFC struggles decrease her momentum.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Gabriella Fernandes: -400, Julija Stoliarenko: +300	Gabriella Fernandes	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	Gabriella Fernandes -1.5 rounds: -150, Julija Stoliarenko +1.5 rounds: +120	Gabriella Fernandes -1.5 rounds (win inside 2 rounds)	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: +145, Under 2.5 rounds: -175	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Gabriella Fernandes -8%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 2%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Gabriella Fernandes to win on the moneyline

Predicted Score: Gabriella Fernandes wins via TKO in Round 2