Match Analysis: Juliana Velasquez vs Katerina Shakalova – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-15
- Time: 10:00 PM UTC
- Location: PFL World Tournament, unspecified venue
Game Overview
This women's flyweight MMA match features Juliana Velasquez, a former Bellator World Champion with extensive experience and a record of 13-4, facing Ekaterina Shakalova, a wrestling specialist with a 9-3 record who shocked the MMA community by submitting Velasquez in their last encounter earlier in 2025. Velasquez is looking to avenge that first-round submission loss as she competes in the PFL World Tournament.
Key Factors to Consider
- Velasquez has high-level striking and judo background with professional experience including Bellator title fights, whereas Shakalova is a wrestler with 5 of 8 career finishes via submission and notable takedown and back control skills demonstrated in their previous match.
- Shakalova defeated Velasquez by first-round rear-naked choke submission in April 2025, showcasing dominant grappling ability and finishing skills. This gives Shakalova psychological and tactical edge going into the rematch.
- No current injury reports for either athlete prior to the fight have been disclosed.
- Shakalova enters as an underdog with odds heavily favoring Velasquez’s opponent implying betting market confidence in Shakalova’s grappling dominance since last fight. Event environment and pressure might affect Velasquez seeking redemption.
- Velasquez is highly motivated to avenge her previous first-round submission loss and reclaim standing in the flyweight tournament. Shakalova aims to reinforce her upset win and continue her streak toward championship contention.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Juliana Velasquez: +200, Katerina Shakalova: -265 | Katerina Shakalova | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | Juliana Velasquez: +1.5 rounds, Katerina Shakalova: -1.5 rounds | Katerina Shakalova -1.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | over: 1.5 rounds, under: 1.5 rounds | Under 1.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Katerina Shakalova -15% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Katerina Shakalova at -15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Despite Velasquez's experience and striking pedigree, Shakalova’s previous submission win and wrestling dominance suggest she has the tactical advantage to control the fight and likely secure another grappling finish or decision victory.
Predicted Score: Katerina Shakalova wins by submission round 1 or 2