Match Analysis: Julian Erosa vs Melquizael Costa – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-17
- Time: 11:45 PM UTC
- Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV, USA
Game Overview
The upcoming UFC Vegas 106 fight between Julian Erosa and Melquizael Costa is a featherweight bout featuring two southpaw fighters with contrasting styles. Erosa, a 35-year-old veteran finisher known for his volume striking and aggression, faces the younger and durable Melquizael Costa, who emphasizes defense and counter-striking. Both fighters enter with a motivation for a four-fight win streak, making this contest highly competitive and significant for their career trajectories.
Key Factors to Consider
- Julian Erosa brings a record of 31-12-0 with a high volume of significant strikes at 6.40 per minute and a 49% strike accuracy, but he absorbs a high rate at 6.21 strikes per minute. Melquizael Costa holds a 23-7-0 record with lower strike output at 3.86 per minute but better defense, absorbing just 2.72 strikes per minute and defending 52% of strikes. Both fighters have similar striking accuracy around 49%.
- There is no recorded previous bout between Julian Erosa and Melquizael Costa, marking this fight as their first direct encounter.
- No reported injuries to either fighter have been indicated close to the fight date, suggesting both are expected to enter at full health.
- The fight takes place at UFC Apex in Las Vegas, a familiar venue for both fighters, reducing travel and acclimatization concerns. No significant external distractions or controversies have been reported impacting either fighter’s preparedness.
- Both fighters are highly motivated to secure a 4-fight win streak, which would boost their UFC rankings and career momentum. Erosa, the veteran, aims to demonstrate his finishing prowess, while Costa looks to leverage his defensive skills and youth to outlast Erosa.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Julian Erosa: +142, Melquizael Costa: -170 | Melquizael Costa | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Spread | Julian Erosa: 3.5 -110, Melquizael Costa: -3.5 -120 | Melquizael Costa -3.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over: 2.5 124, Under: 2.5 -160 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Melquizael Costa -13% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 -3% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at -3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given the defensive durability and lower absorption rate of strikes by Melquizael Costa combined with his ability to defend strikes effectively, Costa has a statistical edge despite Erosa's higher volume and finishing reputation. Costa’s youth and defense likely make him the favorite, but Erosa’s pressure and experience could yield a competitive fight. The prediction favors Melquizael Costa to win by decision or late stoppage.
Predicted Score: Melquizael Costa wins via decision (3-0 rounds)