Match Analysis: Julia Polastri vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-11
• Time: 8:35 PM UTC
• Location: Farmasi Arena, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Game Overview

Julia Polastri, a 27-year-old rising Brazilian strawweight prospect with a 13-5 record and strong Muay Thai skills, faces 39-year-old veteran Karolina Kowalkiewicz, a former title challenger with a 16-9 record. The fight is scheduled for 3 rounds in the UFC Strawweight division at UFC Fight Night in Rio de Janeiro.

Key Factors to Consider

• Polastri is younger with a more aggressive striking style, landing 5.62 significant strikes per minute at 55% accuracy, while Kowalkiewicz averages 5.54 strikes at 43% accuracy. Both absorb similar damage rates, but Polastri has a slight edge in striking efficiency.
• No previous head-to-head matches between Polastri and Kowalkiewicz.
• No significant reported injuries to either fighter leading into the bout.
• Fight takes place in Brazil, giving Polastri home advantage crowd support. Kowalkiewicz has prior UFC fights in Brazil with mixed results (1 win, 1 loss).
• Polastri aims to establish herself as a top contender and capitalize on home advantage. Kowalkiewicz seeks to rebound after consecutive losses in 2024, looking to reclaim momentum late in her career.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Julia Polastri: -470, Karolina Kowalkiewicz: +360	Julia Polastri	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	Julia Polastri -3.5: -120, Karolina Kowalkiewicz +3.5: -110	Julia Polastri -3.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 2.5: -445, Under 2.5: +310	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Julia Polastri -4%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 154%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 154% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 49.7% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Julia Polastri to win via decision

Predicted Score: Julia Polastri wins by unanimous decision (3 rounds)

Top EV Parlay for MMA/Boxing – October 11, 2025

Game	Pick	Odds	EV
Jhonata Diniz vs. Mario Pinto Prediction	Under 1.5	190	103%
Julia Polastri vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz Prediction	Over 2.5	-445	56%
Thomas Petersen vs. Vitor Petrino Prediction	Under 1.5	154	52%

Combined Odds: +802 |
Wager: $20 —
Potential Payout: $180.43

3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Miguel Trindade vs. Bobo Sacko Prediction	Miguel Trindade Win	-145	★★★★☆ 78% (78%)
Irina Alekseeva vs. Beatriz Mesquita Prediction	Beatriz Mesquita -7.5	-230	★★★★☆ 78% (78%)
Julia Polastri vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz Prediction	Julia Polastri Win	-470	★★★★☆ 78% (78%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: +194

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $58.8

Match Analysis: Julia Polastri vs Lupita Godinez – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-03-29
• Time: 8:10 PM UTC
• Location: Arena CDMX in Mexico City, Mexico

Game Overview

This women's strawweight bout between Lupita Godinez and Julia Polastri takes place at UFC on ESPN 64. Both fighters are evenly matched but have different strengths; Godinez is skilled in wrestling, while Polastri has shown resilience and knockout capabilities.

Key Factors to Consider

• Lupita Godinez is favored due to her wrestling background and strong performance in setting up strikes. Julia Polastri has shown recent success with her aggressive style, especially in knockout wins.
• There is no head-to-head matchup history between these two fighters.
• No recent injury reports are available for either fighter.
• The fight takes place in Mexico City, which might favor Godinez due to home crowd support. However, Polastri's fighting style could benefit from her Brazilian background in martial arts.
• Both fighters are motivated to secure a win. Godinez aims to regain momentum after recent losses, while Polastri looks to continue her winning streak.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Julia Polastri: 225, Lupita Godinez: -278	Lupita Godinez	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	Julia Polastri: 3.5 -145, Lupita Godinez: -3.5 110	Lupita Godinez	★★★☆☆ 55%
Over_under	Over 2.5: -620, Under 2.5: 400	Over 2.5	★★★★☆ 75%

Predicted Outcome

Lupita Godinez is likely to win due to her well-rounded skills and recent experience against top opponents.

Predicted Score: Decision win for Lupita Godinez (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)