Match Analysis: Julia Polastri vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-11
- Time: 8:35 PM UTC
- Location: Farmasi Arena
Game Overview
Julia Polastri, a Brazilian strawweight fighter with a 13-5 record, is set to take on Poland's Karolina Kowalkiewicz, who holds a 16-9 record. The bout is scheduled for 3 rounds in the UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot event. Polastri displays a slightly higher striking accuracy (55% vs. 43%) and effective wrestling with an 80% takedown success rate, compared to Kowalkiewicz's lower takedown attempts and success. Neither athlete has faced each other before, making this a fresh matchup where Polastri's grappling and striking precision suggest an advantage.
Key Factors to Consider
- Polastri shows slightly superior striking output and accuracy with 5.62 strikes landed per minute at 55% accuracy, compared to Kowalkiewicz's 5.54 strikes per minute at 43% accuracy. Polastri also has a stronger wrestling game, finishing 80% of her takedown attempts and defending 58% against takedowns, while Kowalkiewicz finishes 22% and defends 74%. Polastri attempts more submissions (0.4 per 15 min) than Kowalkiewicz (0.2 per fight).
- No previous head-to-head meetings between Julia Polastri and Karolina Kowalkiewicz exist.
- No current notable injuries reported for either fighter ahead of the match.
- The fight takes place at Farmasi Arena, favoring Polastri slightly as a home crowd favorite being Brazilian. The fight's timing and promotion within UFC Fight Night may add pressure but no specific external disruptions are identified.
- Polastri aims to build on her recent performances and leverage her strong wrestling and striking skills against the veteran Kowalkiewicz, who is also motivated to secure a key win and assert her stature in the strawweight division.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Julia Polastri: -470, Karolina Kowalkiewicz: 360 | Julia Polastri | ★★★★☆ 79% |
| Spread | Julia Polastri: -3.5 (-120), Karolina Kowalkiewicz: +3.5 (-110) | Julia Polastri to win by more than 3.5 rounds or points equivalent | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds: -445, Under 2.5 rounds: 310 | Over 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Julia Polastri -5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 -20% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Julia Polastri at -5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Julia Polastri is favored to win due to superior striking accuracy, a more effective takedown game, and higher finishing rates. Kowalkiewicz's experience is notable but less pronounced in recent performance metrics.
Predicted Score: Julia Polastri wins via unanimous decision after 3 rounds