Match Analysis: Colby Thicknesse vs Josias Musasa – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-27
• Time: 12:15 AM UTC
• Location: RAC Arena, Perth, Australia

Game Overview

This UFC Bantamweight prelim bout features Josias Musasa, an 8-1 fighter known as 'The KO Wizard,' against Colby Thicknesse, a 7-1 fighter nicknamed 'Slickness.' Both fighters are evenly matched with similar records and complementary styles, vying to improve their rankings in the division.

Key Factors to Consider

• Josias Musasa has a slightly superior recent form with an 8-1 record compared to Thicknesse’s 7-1, showing more finishing ability and experience in high-pressure bouts. Thicknesse is highly technical but has been the underdog in recent fights, suggesting a slight disadvantage in momentum.
• There are no recorded head-to-head fights between Musasa and Thicknesse, making this a fresh matchup with limited direct comparative data.
• Neither fighter currently reports any known injuries affecting their preparation or performance for this bout.
• The fight being in Perth, Australia, may slightly favor Musasa who has fought in similar international venues recently, while Thicknesse will be traveling internationally, possibly impacting acclimatization.
• Both fighters have strong motivation to break into higher UFC rankings, with Musasa looking to capitalize on his favorite status and Thicknesse seeking to upset and prove his technical superiority.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Colby Thicknesse: +126, Josias Musasa: -150	Josias Musasa	★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread	Musasa -1.5: -110, Thicknesse +1.5: -110	Musasa -1.5	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over 2.5: +100, Under 2.5: -120	Under 2.5	★★★☆☆ 57%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Josias Musasa -3%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 5%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Josias Musasa to win by decision

Predicted Score: Musasa wins by decision (3 rounds, unanimous)

Match Analysis: Josias Musasa vs Carlos Vera – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: March 15, 2025
• Time: 8:10 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex in Las Vegas

Game Overview

Josias Musasa and Carlos Vera face off in a bantamweight bout at UFC Vegas 104. Musasa, undefeated at 8-0, makes his UFC debut against Vera, who holds an 11-4 record but is 0-1 in the UFC.

Key Factors to Consider

• Josias Musasa is known for his dynamic striking and knockout ability, while Carlos Vera combines unorthodox striking with aggressive grappling. Musasa lands more significant strikes per minute and has a higher takedown success rate.
• This is the first meeting between the two fighters.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• The fight takes place at the UFC Apex, which could favor neither fighter significantly due to its neutral environment.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, with Musasa seeking a successful UFC debut and Vera looking to secure his first UFC win.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Musasa: -800, Vera: 550	Josias Musasa	★★★★☆ 80%
Over_under	Over 1.5: -160, Under 1.5: 124	Over 1.5	★★★☆☆ 60%

Predicted Outcome

Josias Musasa is likely to win due to his superior striking and takedown defense.

Predicted Score: Decision in favor of Josias Musasa