Match Analysis: Colby Thicknesse vs Josias Musasa – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-27
• Time: 12:15 AM UTC
• Location: RAC Arena, Perth, Australia

Game Overview

Colby Thicknesse and Josias Musasa face off in a Bantamweight prelim bout at UFC Perth. Both fighters are young and talented with similar records, and this match serves as an important opportunity for Thicknesse to secure his first UFC victory and for Musasa to continue his rise in the division.

Key Factors to Consider

• Josias Musasa enters with an 8-1 record, showing solid performances and finishing fights early, while Colby Thicknesse holds a 7-1 record but lost his UFC debut on short notice. Both fighters have athleticism and finishing ability, making this a high-intensity matchup.
• There is no prior head-to-head meeting between Thicknesse and Musasa. They both share the experience of finishing the same common opponent in the first round in their recent fights, hinting at similar finishing capabilities.
• No reported injuries currently affecting either fighter; both appear to be in good condition moving into this bout.
• The fight takes place in Perth, Australia, Colby Thicknesse's home country, offering him potential crowd support. Despite this, Musasa is favored by bookmakers. The fight is on prelims, which may bring added pressure for both as they seek to impress early in their UFC careers.
• Thicknesse is highly motivated to earn his first UFC win and show he belongs in the organization, acknowledging the stakes as both fighters are coming off losses. Musasa looks to solidify his status and capitalize on being the betting favorite.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Colby Thicknesse: +126, Josias Musasa: -150	Josias Musasa	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	Colby Thicknesse: +1.5, Josias Musasa: -1.5	Josias Musasa by more than 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over 2.5: +100, Under 2.5: -120	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Josias Musasa -7%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 10%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Josias Musasa is favored to win due to his slightly higher profile in the UFC and betting market confidence. However, Colby Thicknesse's home advantage and motivation to prove himself suggest a competitive fight with a realistic chance for either fighter to secure a finish.

Predicted Score: Josias Musasa wins by decision or late finish in round 3

Match Analysis: Josias Musasa vs Carlos Vera – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: March 15, 2025
• Time: 8:10 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex in Las Vegas

Game Overview

Josias Musasa and Carlos Vera face off in a bantamweight bout at UFC Vegas 104. Musasa, undefeated at 8-0, makes his UFC debut against Vera, who holds an 11-4 record but is 0-1 in the UFC.

Key Factors to Consider

• Josias Musasa is known for his dynamic striking and knockout ability, while Carlos Vera combines unorthodox striking with aggressive grappling. Musasa lands more significant strikes per minute and has a higher takedown success rate.
• This is the first meeting between the two fighters.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• The fight takes place at the UFC Apex, which could favor neither fighter significantly due to its neutral environment.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, with Musasa seeking a successful UFC debut and Vera looking to secure his first UFC win.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Musasa: -800, Vera: 550	Josias Musasa	★★★★☆ 80%
Over_under	Over 1.5: -160, Under 1.5: 124	Over 1.5	★★★☆☆ 60%

Predicted Outcome

Josias Musasa is likely to win due to his superior striking and takedown defense.

Predicted Score: Decision in favor of Josias Musasa