Match Analysis: Joshua Padley vs Reece Bellotti – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-11
• Time: 8:00 PM UTC
• Location: Utilita Arena, Sheffield, GB

Game Overview

This is a Super-Featherweight 10-round bout between British fighters Joshua Padley and Reece Bellotti. Padley is the heavy favorite due to recent form and home advantage, while Bellotti looks for redemption after a tough recent stoppage loss.

Key Factors to Consider

• Joshua Padley is in excellent recent form with dominant performances and a significant winning streak, showcasing solid technical skills and stamina. Reece Bellotti has struggled lately with a notable loss by late stoppage but remains a tenacious competitor.
• There is no prior recorded head-to-head meeting between Padley and Bellotti, making this their first competitive encounter.
• No publicized injuries for either fighter leading up to the bout, implying both are in full fitness to compete at peak level.
• The fight is on Padley’s home turf in Sheffield, providing a strong crowd support and familiar environment, which could influence momentum and morale during the fight.
• Padley is motivated to maintain his undefeated momentum and capitalize on home advantage, while Bellotti is driven to rebound strongly from a recent stoppage loss, seeking to revive his career trajectory.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Joshua Padley: -550, Reece Bellotti: +366	Joshua Padley	★★★★☆ 88%
Spread	Padley -3.5: -190, Bellotti +3.5: +150	Padley -3.5	★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under	Over 8.5 rounds: -285, Under 8.5 rounds: +212	Under 8.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 68%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Joshua Padley -2%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 8.5 87%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 8.5 at 87% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 41.1% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Joshua Padley to win decisively by decision with the fight going the distance.

Predicted Score: Padley wins by decision after 10 rounds

3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Giorgio Visoli vs. James Wilkinson Prediction	Home -3.5 rounds (Visoli)	-150	★★★★☆ 78% (78%)
Joe Howarth vs. Kane Baker Prediction	Joe Howarth -3.5 rounds	-110	★★★★☆ 78% (78%)
Joshua Padley vs. Reece Bellotti Prediction	Padley -3.5	-190	★★★★☆ 75% (75%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: +386

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $97.13

Match Analysis: Joshua Padley vs Marko Cvetanovic – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-04-19
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: Park Community Arena, Sheffield, United Kingdom

Game Overview

The boxing match between Joshua Padley and Marko Cvetanovic is scheduled for 10 rounds for the WBA International Lightweight Title. It marks Padley's Matchroom Boxing debut after recently signing a multi-fight contract. Padley (15-1, 4 KOs) lost his last fight by ninth-round KO to WBC lightweight champion Shakur Stevenson but has a solid professional record and a respectable ranking at lightweight. Cvetanovic (13-0, 6 KOs), an undefeated Serbian southpaw, is younger and less experienced, with a background in kickboxing and a record built largely fighting veterans and prospects. The fight is expected to be tactical, with Cvetanovic likely to target Padley's body, as Padley showed some vulnerability there in his last bout. Despite Padley’s lower knockout power, his experience and orthodox stance may present challenges for Cvetanovic.

Key Factors to Consider

• Padley has a strong record of 15 wins and 1 loss, with a knockout ratio of 27%, showing durability over nearly 100 professional rounds. Cvetanovic is undefeated with 13 wins and a 46% knockout rate but has less high-level experience.
• This is their first meeting; no prior head-to-head data exists.
• No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the bout.
• Padley's recent high-profile loss may impact confidence, but the fight takes place in his home country, potentially providing a psychological edge. Cvetanovic's transition from kickboxing and relative youth may influence endurance and style.
• Padley is motivated to establish himself under Matchroom Boxing and recover from his recent loss, while Cvetanovic aims to maintain his undefeated status and secure a notable title win.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Joshua Padley: +140, Marko Cvetanovic: -160, Draw: +2500	Marko Cvetanovic	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	Padley +1.5 rounds: -110, Cvetanovic -1.5 rounds: -110	Cvetanovic -1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over 7.5 rounds: -120, Under 7.5 rounds: +100	Under 7.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Home 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Home at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Joshua Padley is favored to win by decision given his experience and tactical approach, despite lacking knockout power. Cvetanovic's youth and aggression may trouble Padley, but the home advantage and ring IQ favor Padley in a close contest.

Predicted Score: Cvetanovic wins by unanimous decision, 96-94 on the judges' scorecards

Match Analysis: Shakur Stevenson vs Joshua Padley – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-02-22
• Time: 5:00 PM UTC
• Location: Kingdom Arena, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

Game Overview

Shakur Stevenson, the WBC lightweight champion, is set to defend his title against Josh Padley, a late replacement for Floyd Schofield, who withdrew due to illness. Stevenson is highly favored in this bout, given his undefeated record and recent performances.

Key Factors to Consider

• Shakur Stevenson is undefeated with a record of 22-0, including 10 knockouts. He is ranked as ESPN's No. 9 pound-for-pound men's fighter and No. 3 in the lightweight rankings. Josh Padley, though unbeaten in 15 fights, lacks the power and speed of Stevenson.
• There is no previous head-to-head matchup between Shakur Stevenson and Josh Padley.
• Floyd Schofield's withdrawal due to illness led to Josh Padley stepping in as a replacement. There are no reported injuries for either Stevenson or Padley.
• The fight is part of a major event in Riyadh, which might add pressure but also provides a significant stage for both fighters. Stevenson's promoter, Eddie Hearn, likely chose Padley to ensure a win before a potential fight with Gervonta Davis.
• Stevenson is highly motivated to win and set up a future fight with Gervonta Davis. Padley, despite being an underdog, has a chance to pull off a major upset and boost his career.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Not available	Shakur Stevenson	★★★★★ 95%
Spread	Not available	Shakur Stevenson by TKO/KO	★★★★☆ 80%
Over_under	Not available	Under	★★★☆☆ 60%

Predicted Outcome

Shakur Stevenson is expected to win due to his superior skills and experience.

Predicted Score: Shakur Stevenson wins by TKO/KO in rounds 6-8.