Match Analysis: Nathan Ghareeb vs Josh Harvey – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-15
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Foxwoods Resort Casino, Mashantucket, Connecticut, USA
Game Overview
Nathan Ghareeb faces Josh Harvey in a lightweight bout at LFA 222. Ghareeb, a top prospect with a 12-3 record, returns to LFA after previous appearances and is motivated to advance toward the UFC. Harvey, with an 8-3-1 record, is known for his toughness and has shown interest in this matchup, having previously requested the fight. The bout is set for three rounds and is expected to be a high-paced, technical clash with potential for finishes.
Key Factors to Consider
- Nathan Ghareeb has been active and is coming off a series of wins, showing improved striking and grappling. He is working with his original striking coach and is focused on taking the next step in his career. Josh Harvey has a solid record but has faced tougher competition, including a recent draw. His style is aggressive, but he has shown vulnerability to high-volume attacks.
- This is the first professional meeting between Ghareeb and Harvey. There is no prior head-to-head record, but both fighters have faced similar levels of competition in regional promotions.
- No reported injuries for either fighter. Both passed the official weigh-in and are expected to be at full strength.
- The fight takes place at Foxwoods Resort Casino, a neutral venue. The event is broadcast live on UFC Fight Pass, adding extra pressure and exposure for both fighters.
- Ghareeb has expressed strong motivation, citing bad blood with Harvey and a desire to prove himself for a UFC contract. Harvey has also shown interest in the matchup, having requested it previously, indicating he is highly motivated to win.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Josh Harvey: 550, Nathan Ghareeb: -1000 | Nathan Ghareeb | Not available |
| Spread | Josh Harvey: +1.5, Nathan Ghareeb: -1.5 | Nathan Ghareeb -1.5 | Not available |
| Over/under | over: 1.5, under: 1.5 | Over 1.5 | Not available |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Nathan Ghareeb -2% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 1.5 38% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 38% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 29.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Nathan Ghareeb is favored to win this bout due to his superior record, recent form, and motivation. The fight is expected to be competitive, but Ghareeb's high-volume striking and grappling skills should give him the edge. A finish is possible, but a decision win is more likely.
Predicted Score: Nathan Ghareeb wins by decision, 3-0