Match Analysis: Josh Abraham vs Harry Shaw – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-27
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: BEC Arena, Manchester, Greater Manchester, England
Game Overview
The MMA bout between Josh Abraham and Harry Shaw is set for Cage Warriors 190: Unplugged at the BEC Arena. Both fighters compete at 145 lbs, with Harry Shaw entering as the betting favorite. This match marks a significant event in European MMA with live broadcast on UFC Fight Pass, highlighting the fighters' return to high-profile competition.
Key Factors to Consider
- Josh Abraham has shown solid performances in past Cage Warriors events but is coming in as the underdog with less recent activity at this level compared to Harry Shaw. Harry Shaw has maintained strong form and is favored by bookmakers, reflecting consistent fight activity and winning momentum.
- There is no publicly available direct head-to-head history between Josh Abraham and Harry Shaw, making this their first known competitive encounter at the Cage Warriors level.
- No recent injury reports or issues have been disclosed for either fighter ahead of the match, suggesting both are in optimal condition for the fight.
- The fight is part of a major European MMA event with live UFC Fight Pass coverage, adding pressure and motivation for a strong performance. The venue and timing are neutral with no reported external disturbances influencing the fighters.
- Both fighters have high motivation: Abraham to re-establish himself at the top tier of Cage Warriors competition and Shaw to capitalize on his favored status and continue his ascent in the division.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Josh Abraham: +120, Harry Shaw: -163 | Harry Shaw | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | Josh Abraham: +1.5, Harry Shaw: -1.5 | Harry Shaw -1.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over: -155, Under: +135 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Home 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Home at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Harry Shaw is predicted to win the match given his favored status, recent form, and bookmaker odds. However, Josh Abraham's resilience and potential for an upset keep the contest competitive.
Predicted Score: Harry Shaw wins by decision or late stoppage in round 3