Match Analysis: Matt Schnell vs Joseph Morales – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-08
• Time: 1:45 AM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada

Game Overview

Top-15 UFC flyweight Matt Schnell (17-9, 1 NC) and Joseph Morales (14-2) meet at UFC Vegas 111 in a pivotal matchup for the division. Schnell is a veteran, high-volume striker with submission savvy but recent durability questions, while Morales is younger, improving, and excels in scrambling and submission hunting.

Key Factors to Consider

• Schnell is the more active striker (4.13 significant strikes/minute vs. Morales' 2.02), but has lost all seven UFC fights by stoppage; Morales is on a run of strong form, averaging nearly 3 submission attempts per fight, and has shown superior durability and finishing instincts.
• No direct H2H, but Morales' grappling and scrambling are stylistically troublesome for Schnell, who has been susceptible to being worn down and finished.
• No recent injury concerns reported for either fighter.
• Card placement is pre-lim at UFC Apex; no crowd or travel concerns. Morales is younger and likely fresher; Schnell is 35, potentially nearing the tail of his prime.
• Morales is rising, motivated to climb the division; Schnell is fighting to avoid a potential release after going 1-3 in last 4, with all losses by stoppage.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Joseph Morales -425 / Matt Schnell +330	Joseph Morales wins	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	Joseph Morales -7.5 (-165) / Matt Schnell +7.5 (+120)	Joseph Morales (-7.5) covers	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 1.5 (-175) / Under 1.5 (+135)	Over 1.5 rounds hits	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Joseph Morales -4%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 1.5 2%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Joseph Morales' superior durability, superior finishing threat, and momentum will see him break through Schnell's early activity, dominate the scrambles, and either submit or outwork Schnell late for a clear decision.

Predicted Score: We project a competitive (possibly back-and-forth) opening but for Morales to wear Schnell down and win in the 2nd half of the fight, likely by submission, or a clear 29-28/30-27 decision.

Match Analysis: Alibi Idiris vs Joseph Morales – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-16
• Time: 10:10 PM UTC
• Location: UFC 319, Venue TBD

Game Overview

Alibi Idiris (10-0) enters this flyweight UFC matchup unbeaten and heavily favored against Joseph Morales (12-2), a skilled but slightly less accomplished opponent. Both fighters share the same height and weight, but Idiris’ undefeated streak and strong recent form set the tone.

Key Factors to Consider

• Alibi Idiris boasts a perfect 10-0 record with consistent wins in recent bouts, indicating peak form and momentum. Joseph Morales holds a respectable 12-2 record but has dropped two fights in recent times, suggesting some vulnerability.
• No direct previous head-to-head matchups between Alibi Idiris and Joseph Morales are found, making comparative analysis reliant on overall records and fighting style.
• No reported injuries have been disclosed for either fighter, indicating both should be competing at full capacity.
• Fight to take place at UFC 319, a major event likely motivating both fighters to perform at their best. No adverse travel or other external factors reported.
• Alibi Idiris’ undefeated record adds pressure to maintain perfection, providing strong intrinsic motivation. Joseph Morales has strong incentive to upset the favorite and climb ranks, but this underdog motivation is less quantifiable than Idiris’ momentum.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Alibi Idiris -450, Joseph Morales +350	Alibi Idiris	★★★★☆ 85%
Spread	Not available explicitly; implied -1.5 rounds for Idiris likely	Alibi Idiris -1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 80%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds -150, Under 2.5 rounds +120	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Alibi Idiris -5%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 32%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 32% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.7% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Alibi Idiris to win by decision or stoppage within 3 rounds

Predicted Score: Alibi Idiris wins via TKO in Round 2