Match Analysis: Regis Prograis vs Joseph Diaz – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-03
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: Credit Union 1 Arena, Chicago
Game Overview
The super lightweight bout features Regis Prograis, a powerful southpaw with a 29-3 record and 83% knockout rate, against Joseph 'Jo Jo' Diaz, also a southpaw with a 34-7-1 record and a lower knockout rate of 44%. Prograis holds physical advantages in height and reach and enters with a strong recent form and high odds favoring him.
Key Factors to Consider
- Prograis comes with 29 wins and 24 KOs and has demonstrated consistent finishing power. Diaz’s 34 wins and 15 KOs show less knockout capacity but more experience with 332 rounds versus Prograis’s 172.
- No direct recent head-to-head bouts, but comparative style and records favor Prograis given power and physical advantages.
- No reported injuries for either fighter leading up to the match.
- Fight scheduled for 12 rounds at super lightweight (140 lbs). Both fighters are southpaws, which may increase tactical complexity. Venue and broadcast set; no notable disruptions expected.
- Prograis is motivated to uphold his dominant form and reinforce top ranking. Diaz seeks to overcome underdog status and leverage experience, but must overcome Prograis’s physical and power edges.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Regis Prograis: -910, Joseph Diaz: 510 | Regis Prograis | ★★★★☆ 86% |
| Spread | Prograis -1.5 rounds: -300, Diaz +1.5 rounds: +250 | Prograis -1.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Over/under | Over 8.5 rounds: -110, Under 8.5 rounds: -110 | Under 8.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Regis Prograis -5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Regis Prograis at -5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Regis Prograis to win by decision or knockout.
Predicted Score: Prograis wins by 9th round stoppage or late decision