Match Analysis: Regis Prograis vs Joseph Diaz – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-02
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: Credit Union 1 Arena, Chicago, US
Game Overview
Regis Prograis and Joseph Diaz Jr. face off in a 12-round super lightweight bout (140 lbs) at the Credit Union 1 Arena. Prograis (29-3, 24 KOs) has a significant power advantage and physical superiority in height and reach over Diaz (34-7-1, 15 KOs). Both southpaws, the fight is expected to be more strategic and measured given their career stages, with Prograis seen as a frontrunner due to his size and power, despite recent losses.
Key Factors to Consider
- Prograis has a 83% KO rate and a technically strong 140lb fighter profile but has lost his last two fights. Diaz has a longer career, more fights and rounds, but a lower KO percentage (44%) and is coming off multiple losses in this weight class.
- No previous head-to-head encounters found between Prograis and Diaz. Both experienced former champions but at different career trajectories with Prograis having less total professional rounds.
- No recent injury reports were indicated for either fighter in the available data.
- The fight occurs at a well-known venue in Chicago with live streaming available on DAZN. It is on the undercard of Duarte vs Sims Jr, a relatively low-profile bout which might influence crowd dynamics. Both fighters are near the end of their primes, which could affect performance.
- Diaz aims to use this win as a springboard for bigger fights, while Prograis looks to re-establish himself after recent losses. Diaz feels strong and ready at this weight, while Prograis's power remains a key threat despite questions about his career longevity.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Joseph Diaz: +510, Regis Prograis: -910 | Regis Prograis | ★★★★☆ 85% |
| Spread | Prograis -4.5 rounds: -200, Diaz +4.5 rounds: +170 | Prograis -4.5 rounds (win by clear margin) | ★★★★☆ 80% |
| Over/under | Over 9.5 rounds: -115, Under 9.5 rounds: -105 | Under 9.5 rounds (fight ends before full 12 rounds) | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Regis Prograis -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Regis Prograis at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Regis Prograis is predicted to win by a late stoppage or unanimous decision due to his physical advantages and knockout power. Diaz may have early success but is expected to fade in the middle rounds, allowing Prograis to take control strategically and physically.
Predicted Score: Prograis wins by 10th round TKO