Match Analysis: Joselyne Edwards vs Priscila Cachoeira – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-09
- Time: 8:00 PM UTC
- Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
Game Overview
The upcoming UFC Vegas 109 Women's Bantamweight bout features Joselyne Edwards versus Priscila Cachoeira. Edwards, known as 'La Pantera', holds a professional record of 15-6 and stands 5'8" with a 70" reach. Cachoeira, nicknamed 'Zombie Girl', has a 13-6 record, is slightly shorter at 5'7" with a 65" reach. Both fighters use orthodox stance and weigh in at 135 lbs. Edwards is the betting favorite due to superior striking accuracy, defense, and reach advantage.
Key Factors to Consider
- Joselyne Edwards is landing 4.62 significant strikes per minute at 53% accuracy while absorbing 3.20 significant strikes per minute. Priscila Cachoeira lands 4.03 significant strikes per minute with 44% accuracy but is vulnerable defensively, allowing 7.15 significant strikes per minute. Edwards' higher defensive capability and striking efficiency give her an edge.
- Joselyne Edwards and Priscila Cachoeira have never fought before, so there is no direct head-to-head history to analyze.
- No reported injuries have been found for either fighter leading up to this bout.
- The bout takes place at the UFC Apex, a neutral venue with no notable environmental factors impacting performance. No recent changes in coaching or major disruptions have been reported.
- Edwards is aiming to improve her UFC record and climb the bantamweight ranks, while Cachoeira seeks to rebound from recent losses. Both fighters have strong motivation, but Edwards' younger age and track record suggest marginally higher drive.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Joselyne Edwards: -350, Priscila Cachoeira: 285 | Joselyne Edwards to win | ★★★★☆ 74% |
| Spread | Edwards -1.5 rounds: -180, Cachoeira +1.5 rounds: 150 | Edwards to win by more than 1.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds: -180, Under 2.5 rounds: 150 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Joselyne Edwards -5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 50% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 50% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 33.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Joselyne Edwards is predicted to win by decision or late-round TKO due to superior striking defense, accuracy, and reach. The fight is expected to go the distance or end in Edwards' favor by rounds 3 to 4.
Predicted Score: Edwards wins by decision (3 rounds to 0) or TKO in round 3 or 4