Match Analysis: Joselyne Edwards vs Priscila Cachoeira – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-09
- Time: 8:00 PM UTC
- Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
Game Overview
Joselyne Edwards and Priscila Cachoeira face off in a Women’s Bantamweight bout at UFC Vegas 109. Edwards is favored according to bookmaker odds, showing superior striking accuracy and defensive metrics, though both have similar MMA experience and records.
Key Factors to Consider
- Edwards holds a 15-6 career record with a 6-4 UFC record, landing 4.62 significant strikes per minute at 53% accuracy and absorbing 3.20 strikes per minute. Cachoeira has a 13-6 record with a 5-6 UFC record, landing 4.03 significant strikes per minute at 44% accuracy while absorbing 7.15 strikes per minute.
- No previous head-to-head bouts between Edwards and Cachoeira.
- No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the bout.
- Fight takes place at UFC Apex in Las Vegas, a neutral venue with no altitude or climate issues. Both fighters are orthodox and similarly matched in weight class.
- Edwards, younger and holding a better recent UFC record, likely has stronger motivation to advance her standing. Cachoeira, at 36, may be motivated to prove longevity but has had mixed recent results.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Joselyne Edwards: -350, Priscila Cachoeira: 285 | Joselyne Edwards | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | Joselyne Edwards -1.5: -150, Priscila Cachoeira +1.5: 130 | Joselyne Edwards -1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: -180, Under 2.5: 150 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Joselyne Edwards -10% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 50% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 50% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 33.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Joselyne Edwards to win by decision
Predicted Score: Edwards wins by decision (3 rounds)