Match Analysis: Asu Almabaev vs Jose Ochoa – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-07-26
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Game Overview

Flyweight UFC main card fight between veteran grappler Asu Almabayev and rising prospect Jose Ochoa.

Key Factors to Consider

• Almabayev holds a strong 21-3 record with a grappling-heavy, control-oriented style, averaging over 13 minutes per fight indicating a grind approach. Ochoa is an up-and-coming fighter fresh from a dominant KO win, with a more aggressive, fast-start style.
• No previous head-to-head matchups; this is their first encounter, making styles and adaptability crucial.
• No reported injuries for either athlete leading into the fight; both appear fully healthy and ready.
• Fight takes place in a hot, dry environment (98°F forecast) in Abu Dhabi which could favor the more experienced, pace-controlling fighter used to longer fights.
• Ochoa is highly motivated as a rising prospect aiming to make a statement, while Almabayev seeks to maintain veteran status and control the division.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Asu Almabayev -125, Jose Ochoa +105	Asu Almabayev	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Almabayev -3.5 -195, Ochoa +3.5 +140	Asu Almabayev -3.5	★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under	Over 2.5 -195, Under 2.5 +150	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Asu Almabaev 19%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 50%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 50% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 33.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Moneyline: Asu Almabayev to win; Spread: Asu Almabayev to cover -3.5; Over/Under: Under 2.5 rounds

Predicted Score: Almabayev wins by decision after controlling pace and grappling dominance

Match Analysis: Cody Durden vs Jose Ochoa – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-06-15
• Time: 12:25 AM UTC
• Location: State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA

Game Overview

A UFC Fight Night bout between local favorite Cody Durden and Peru's rising contender José Ochoa at State Farm Arena. Durden, a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, returns to his hometown for his 13th UFC fight, facing Ochoa in what is their first head-to-head matchup. The event is part of the Usman vs. Buckley card, with Durden having strong local support and a reputation for reliability and toughness[1][4][5].

Key Factors to Consider

• Cody Durden: 13th UFC fight, recent mixed results including a win over Matt Schnell and a loss to Joshua Van. Known for durability and solid grappling. José Ochoa: Up-and-coming, less UFC experience, but strong base in striking and grappling. Durden has more UFC experience and a proven track record at this level[1][5].
• No prior head-to-head matchups between Durden and Ochoa[5].
• No reported injuries for either fighter. Both are medically cleared and ready to compete[1][5].
• Durden has overwhelming local fan support and is highly motivated fighting at home. The fight is part of a high-profile UFC event, adding to the intensity for both athletes[1][4].
• Durden is highly motivated by the hometown crowd and the opportunity to rebound after recent losses. Ochoa is eager to prove himself at the UFC level and make a statement[1][5].

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Cody Durden: 154, Jose Ochoa: -185	José Ochoa by decision or late stoppage	Not available
Spread	Cody Durden: 3.5 -120, Jose Ochoa: -3.5 -110	Ochoa covers -3.5 (wins by clear margin)	Not available
Over/under	Over: 2.5 -130, Under: 2.5 100	Over 2.5 rounds (fight goes to a decision)	Not available

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Jose Ochoa 65%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 15%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Jose Ochoa at 65% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 42.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Cody Durden is the more experienced fighter with significant UFC-level experience and a strong grappling game, but José Ochoa is the betting favorite due to recent momentum and potential stylistic advantages. The fight is expected to be competitive, with pressure on both athletes. The high motivation and crowd support for Durden could level the playing field, but Ochoa’s odds reflect a greater expectation of victory by the market.

Predicted Score: José Ochoa by unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)