Match Analysis: Asu Almabaev vs Jose Ochoa – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-07-26
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Game Overview

The flyweight UFC Fight Night bout between Asu Almabaev and Jose Ochoa is a highly anticipated matchup that could impact the divisional landscape significantly. Almabaev is a veteran grappler with a solid 21-3-0 record and a grind-focused style averaging over 13 minutes per fight, emphasizing control and endurance. Ochoa is an exciting rising prospect, known for his striking and coming off a dominant knockout victory, bringing a more aggressive and finish-oriented approach. The fight is scheduled for three rounds at flyweight, taking place in hot desert conditions at the Etihad Arena.

Key Factors to Consider

• Almabaev has demonstrated consistency and experience in the UFC with a grappling-heavy approach leading to a controlled pace, while Ochoa is an emerging striker showing potential to finish fights quickly and is on an upward trajectory.
• This will be the first professional matchup between Almabaev and Ochoa, making their styles and recent form very critical to the prediction due to lack of direct history.
• No publicly reported injuries or recent health issues for either fighter that could impact performance have been identified prior to the fight.
• The fight takes place in Abu Dhabi's Etihad Arena, with forecasted desert heat of around 98°F which could influence cardio and endurance, potentially favoring Almabaev's pacing style over Ochoa's strike-heavy aggression.
• Almabaev aims to leverage his veteran status and maintain divisional relevance, while Ochoa seeks to establish himself as a top contender with a statement win on a major Fight Night card.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Asu Almabaev: -125, Jose Ochoa: 105	Asu Almabaev	★★★☆☆ 60%
Spread	Asu Almabaev: -195 on +3.5, Jose Ochoa: 140 on -3.5	Asu Almabaev +3.5 to cover	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -195, Under 2.5 rounds: 150	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Asu Almabaev 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 3%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.6% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given Almabaev's durability and control contrasted with Ochoa's finishing upside, the fight could be closely contested but likely leans to Almabaev by decision if he manages to impose his grappling, though a potential knockout by Ochoa remains possible. The prediction favors Almabaev to win by decision with approximately 60% confidence.

Predicted Score: Almabaev wins via unanimous decision after 3 rounds

Match Analysis: Cody Durden vs Jose Ochoa – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-06-14
• Time: 12:25 AM UTC
• Location: State Farm Arena, Atlanta, Georgia, USA

Game Overview

UFC flyweight bout between Cody Durden (17-7-1) and Jose Ochoa (7-1, 1 NC) at UFC Fight Night Atlanta. No titles are on the line. Durden is a home-state veteran with more experience, while Ochoa is a young, aggressive prospect with a high knockout rate.

Key Factors to Consider

• Durden averages 3.52 sig. strikes/min, lands 45% of attempts, and absorbs 4.29/min with 49% defense. Ochoa averages 3.33 sig. strikes/min, lands 31% of attempts, and absorbs 3.40/min with 59% defense. Ochoa has a higher defense rate and a strong finish rate, but less professional experience.
• No prior head-to-head meetings between Durden and Ochoa.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• Durden fights in his home state, potentially boosting local support and motivation. Ochoa is the younger, less experienced fighter.
• Durden seeks to rebound from a recent loss, while Ochoa looks to continue his ascent in the division and avenge his sole pro loss.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Cody Durden: +160, Jose Ochoa: -192	Jose Ochoa favored, but with expected close margin	★★★☆☆ 60%
Spread	Cody Durden: 3.5 -120, Jose Ochoa: -3.5 -110	Jose Ochoa to cover -3.5 (win by decision or stoppage within rounds, not guaranteed due to Durden’s resilience)	★★★☆☆ 55%
Over/under	Over: 2.5 -130, Under: 2.5 +100	Under 2.5 rounds (fight ends before 2:30 of round 3) is a slight value, but Over 2.5 is a reasonable hedge given both fighters’ abilities to go the distance.	★★★☆☆ 50%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Jose Ochoa -6%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 -12%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Jose Ochoa at -6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

This is a closely matched fight due to similar physical stats and fighting styles. Ochoa is favored by oddsmakers, likely due to his recent performances and high finish rate, but Durden's experience and home advantage could make this more competitive than the odds suggest. Both fighters have shown vulnerability, but Ochoa's youth and defense efficiency may give him a slight edge. However, Durden’s experience and home crowd could be a difference-maker in a fight that could go the distance or feature a late finish.

Predicted Score: Jose Ochoa by decision (unanimous or split), or late TKO in round 3.