Match Analysis: Joe Giannetti vs Jose Ferreira – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 14, 2025
- Time: 3:00 AM UTC
- Location: Foxwoods Resort Casino, Mashantucket, Connecticut, United States
Game Overview
LFA 222 lightweight bout featuring Joe Giannetti (17-7-1) against Jose Ferreira (13-2-0). This is a significant matchup between two experienced regional fighters. Giannetti is the slight underdog despite superior record depth, while Ferreira enters with a more impressive recent record and appears to be the bookmaker favorite.
Key Factors to Consider
- Giannetti holds a 17-7-1 record with 7 KO/TKOs, 10 submissions, and 2 decisions. His experience and submission prowess (10 finishes via submission) suggest a well-rounded striker/grappler. Ferreira sports a 13-2 record (no draws or NCs in significant losses) with 4 KO/TKOs, 3 submissions, and 2 decisions. Ferreira's 2-loss record is notably compressed, suggesting recent losses or a shorter active history, but his win rate (13-2) is marginally superior at 86.7% vs Giannetti's 70.3% when accounting for draws.
- No prior head-to-head history available between these fighters. This is a fresh matchup with no direct competitive data.
- No injury information available in the provided data.
- Both fighters are competing at LFA 222, a regional promotion event. Giannetti weighs 166 lbs (75 kg) and Ferreira weighs 155.4 lbs (70.4 kg), suggesting Giannetti may have a slight size/strength advantage at lightweight despite both meeting weight requirements.
- Both fighters are competing in a regional promotion, indicating moderate stakes. Ferreira's superior recent record (only 2 losses) may provide psychological confidence, while Giannetti's more extensive experience (17 wins, deeper resume) suggests composure and fight IQ advantages.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Giannetti +120 / Ferreira -160 | Jose Ferreira | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jose Ferreira -11% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Jose Ferreira at -11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Jose Ferreira to win by decision or judges' scorecard. Ferreira's perfect 13-2 record with recent momentum, combined with bookmaker consensus and his defensive record (only 2 losses), suggests a fighter operating at peak form. Giannetti's submission-heavy style (10 of 17 wins) may be neutralized by Ferreira's calculated approach and defensive acumen.
Predicted Score: Jose Ferreira wins via Unanimous or Majority Decision (29-28, 30-27, or similar) after 3 rounds of competitive wrestling exchanges and measured striking. Fight goes the distance with no finish.