Match Analysis: José Aldo vs Aiemann Zahabi – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-11
- Time: 3:15 AM UTC
- Location: UFC 315, Venue TBD
Game Overview
The upcoming bantamweight MMA bout features veteran José Aldo with a record of 32-9 facing the younger contender Aiemann Zahabi who holds a record of 12-2. The fight is scheduled for UFC 315 on May 11, 2025. Aldo, with extensive experience and a notable knockout power, seeks to reclaim momentum after recent mixed results, whereas Zahabi arrives with a strong winning streak and high confidence from recent victories.
Key Factors to Consider
- José Aldo has displayed resilience with 3 wins in his last 5 fights, but recent performances show some decline including a split decision loss at UFC 307. Aldo’s fights tend to last over 3 rounds on average, indicating endurance but possibly less finishing power recently. Zahabi has been more consistent lately with only 2 losses overall, and his fights generally end quicker, averaging 2.5 rounds, highlighting his aggressiveness and finishing ability.
- This will be their first professional meeting, so direct head-to-head data is unavailable. Aldo’s extensive experience (41 matches) versus Zahabi’s fewer but highly successful bouts (14 matches) will be a crucial storyline.
- No explicit injuries reported for either fighter close to the fight date, suggesting both are near full fitness.
- The bout’s setting at UFC 315 provides a high-profile platform. Aldo’s veteran status and fan following could provide motivational advantage, while Zahabi’s rising profile and youth may add pressure to prove himself at this level.
- Aldo, at 38 years old, is motivated to demonstrate he remains relevant in the bantamweight division. Zahabi, at 37, though close in age, is newer and likely highly motivated to solidify his standing in the UFC ranks by defeating a former champion.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | José Aldo: -192, Aiemann Zahabi: 160 | José Aldo win | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Spread | José Aldo -3.5: 125, Aiemann Zahabi +3.5: -175 | José Aldo covers -3.5 rounds spread | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds: -410, Under 2.5 rounds: 290 | Over 2.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | José Aldo -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 -13% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: José Aldo at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
José Aldo is favored due to his extensive experience, slightly better recent performance metrics, and odds reflecting him as the favorite. However, Zahabi’s youth, finishing potential, and momentum represent a credible threat. Expect a competitive bout with a probable decision or late-round finish favoring Aldo.
Predicted Score: José Aldo wins by unanimous decision or late-round TKO around 3 to 4 rounds