Match Analysis: Emiliano Vargas vs Jonathan Montrel – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-15
- Time: 12:25 AM UTC
- Location: Arena Coliseo, San Luis Potosi, Mexico
Game Overview
Emiliano Vargas faces Jonathan Montrel in a 10-round super lightweight bout for the vacant WBO Latino Junior Welterweight title. Both fighters are orthodox, with Vargas holding a significant edge in knockout percentage and physical attributes, while Montrel brings more professional experience and a solid record.
Key Factors to Consider
- Emiliano Vargas is undefeated (15-0, 13 KOs) with a dominant knockout rate of 87%. Jonathan Montrel has a record of 19-3, 13 KOs, with a 68% knockout rate. Vargas is younger, taller, and has a longer reach, but Montrel has fought 41 more professional rounds and debuted earlier.
- No previous professional meetings between Vargas and Montrel. This is their first encounter.
- No reported injuries for either fighter as of the weigh-in and pre-fight reports.
- The fight takes place in Mexico, which may provide a slight home advantage for Vargas, who is American but fighting in a Mexican venue. The bout is for a regional title, adding extra stakes.
- Vargas is motivated to maintain his undefeated record and capture a title. Montrel is seeking a major upset and a title opportunity after recent setbacks.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Emiliano Vargas: -2800, Jonathan Montrel: 1100 | Emiliano Vargas | Not available |
| Spread | Vargas -5.5 rounds | Vargas wins by decision or stoppage before round 6 | Not available |
| Over/under | Over/Under 7.5 rounds | Under 7.5 rounds | Not available |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Emiliano Vargas -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Emiliano Vargas at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Emiliano Vargas is heavily favored due to his youth, knockout power, and physical advantages. Montrel's experience and resilience make him dangerous, but Vargas is expected to win by decision or late stoppage.
Predicted Score: Emiliano Vargas wins by TKO in round 5