Match Analysis: Jonathan Micallef vs Oban Elliott – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-27
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: RAC Arena, Perth, AUS
Game Overview
Welterweight bout between Jonathan Micallef (8-1) and Oban Elliott (12-3). Both fighters are similarly sized, Elliott has more experience with 15 fights versus Micallef's 9, and Elliott is favored by bookmakers despite a recent loss.
Key Factors to Consider
- Oban Elliott holds a 12-3 record with solid UFC experience but recently lost by unanimous decision to Seok Hyun Ko, indicating potential vulnerability. Jonathan Micallef is unbeaten at 8-1, showing strong recent form and possibly rising confidence.
- No previous head-to-head matchups between Micallef and Elliott, making tactical adjustments and adaptability important factors.
- No publicly reported injuries for either fighter leading into the matchup.
- Fight is hosted in Perth, Australia, closer to Micallef’s likely fan base which might aid his motivation. Weather and travel issues appear neutral.
- Micallef is motivated to prove himself against a more established competitor, while Elliott aims to rebound quickly from a recent loss, applying psychological pressure both ways.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jonathan Micallef: +100, Oban Elliott: -120 | Oban Elliott | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
| Spread | Jonathan Micallef +3.5: -215, Oban Elliott -3.5: +155 | Oban Elliott -3.5 | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: -245, Under 2.5: +185 | Over 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Oban Elliott 1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 -14% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Oban Elliott at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Oban Elliott to win by decision
Predicted Score: Oban Elliott wins by decision after 3 rounds