Match Analysis: Jonathan Micallef vs Oban Elliott – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-27
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: RAC Arena, Perth, Australia
Game Overview
The UFC prelims Light heavyweight fight between Jonathan Micallef and Oban Elliott takes place at UFC Perth. Micallef enters as an underdog against Elliott, who is known for his technical striking and fight control. Both fighters bring distinct styles and approaches, with Micallef having worked with UFC legend Robert Whittaker to prepare, and Elliott recognized for his striking range and takedown mix.
Key Factors to Consider
- Jonathan Micallef has faced doubts from sportsbooks in recent fights but has improved training under Robert Whittaker. Oban Elliott has a 12-3 career record with strong striking, good distance management, and effective counters. Elliott’s prior performance showed some underwhelming moments but remains a crafty tactician.
- No direct head-to-head record is available, making this matchup a fresh technical puzzle for both fighters.
- No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the match.
- The fight is held in Perth, Australia, granting Micallef a slight home-crowd advantage. Betting markets currently favor Elliott despite this.
- Micallef is motivated to prove doubters wrong and capitalize on home advantage. Elliott seeks to maintain momentum after a mixed recent performance and demonstrate technical superiority.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jonathan Micallef: 100, Oban Elliott: -120 | Oban Elliott | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
| Spread | Jonathan Micallef +3.5: -215, Oban Elliott -3.5: 155 | Jonathan Micallef +3.5 | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds: -245, Under 2.5 rounds: 185 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Oban Elliott -5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 57% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 57% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 30.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Oban Elliott is favored to win due to his technical striking, fight IQ, and recent ring control, but Micallef’s improvement and home advantage introduce notable upset potential.
Predicted Score: Oban Elliott wins by decision, likely within three rounds