Match Analysis: Abraham Bably vs Joffie Houlton – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-18
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: PFL Africa 3, Rwanda

Game Overview

Heavyweight semifinal bout between Abraham Bably and Joffie Houlton at PFL Africa 3. Bably is favored heavily by bookmakers and holds a strong track record with more wins via KO. Houlton missed weight, coming in heavier, which may affect his conditioning and performance.

Key Factors to Consider

• Abraham Bably is on a strong run with a 6-2 career record and recent win over Paul-Emmanuel Gnaze. Bably has a 50% KO rate among his wins, indicating effective striking. Joffie Houlton, while less detailed statistically, missed weight at 263.8 lbs, potentially hindering performance.
• This is their first recorded matchup, so no direct head-to-head data is available.
• No reported injuries on either fighter; however, Houlton’s weight miss indicates possible issues in preparation or conditioning.
• The event is held in Rwanda under the PFL Africa series, standard neutral conditions. Houlton missing weight could psychologically impact his confidence and stamina in the fight.
• Both fighters are highly motivated as this bout determines a finalist in the heavyweight tournament, but Bably's more consistent preparation (making weight) gives him an edge.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Abraham Bably: -1800, Joffie Houlton: +900	Abraham Bably	★★★★☆ 85%
Spread	Bably -1.5 rounds: -150, Houlton +1.5 rounds: +120	Bably -1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 78%
Over/under	Over 1.5 rounds: +174, Under 1.5 rounds: -200	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 72%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Abraham Bably -10%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 -3%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at -3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Abraham Bably win by stoppage (KO/TKO) within 2 rounds

Predicted Score: Bably wins via KO/TKO round 2

Match Analysis: Abdoullah Kane vs Joffie Houlton – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-07-19
• Time: 2:00 PM UTC
• Location: Cape Town (PFL Africa 1)

Game Overview

Abdoullah Kane faces Joffie Houlton in a heavyweight bout at PFL Africa 1. Both fighters are relatively unproven at the professional level, with limited available fight footage and public statistical records. The significant odds disparity suggests a perceived mismatch by bookmakers.

Key Factors to Consider

• No recent professional fight history available for either fighter, limiting performance analysis. Bookmaker odds strongly favor Kane, indicating superior perceived skill or intel.
• No previous meetings; bout is a new matchup.
• No public injury information available for either fighter.
• PFL Africa 1 marks a major stage for local fighters; home-crowd advantage for Kane, if he is South African, may play a psychological role. No major external distractions reported.
• Both fighters are likely highly motivated to make a statement at a premier African MMA event. However, Kane, as the favored local, may face additional pressure to perform.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Kane -550 / Houlton +390	Abdoullah Kane moneyline	★★★★☆ 85%
Spread	Not available (inferred: Kane -3.5 rounds, Houlton +3.5 rounds)	Kane wins inside distance (not available, substitute: Kane covers spread if set at -3.5 rounds)	★★★★☆ 80%
Over/under	Not available (typical heavyweight: over/under 1.5 rounds)	Over 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Abdoullah Kane 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Abdoullah Kane at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 2.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Kane is expected to dominate early, leveraging superior size or athleticism, though Houlton's underdog price suggests some chance of a high-risk, high-reward result.

Predicted Score: Kane by TKO or submission, Round 2