Claudio Puelles vs. Joaquim Silva Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Claudio Puelles vs Joaquim Silva – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-13
  • Time: 10:15 PM UTC
  • Location: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio

Game Overview

UFC lightweight bout featuring Claudio Puelles (29, 13-4-0) versus Joaquim Silva (36, 13-6-0), both southpaws with contrasting styles. Puelles known for solid submission game and defensive striking, Silva for higher volume striking and durability.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Puelles is coming off a loss after a long layoff, but historically durable and has a high submission threat. Silva has been more active recently but on a two-fight losing streak; Silva lands more significant strikes per minute but absorbs more as well.
  • No direct head-to-head fights found between Puelles and Silva, making this a stylistic clash rather than familiarity-based.
  • No current reported injuries for either fighter impacting performance.
  • Fight is at a neutral venue; no home advantage for either. Both fighters have similar southpaw stance, minimizing stance-related advantages.
  • Puelles looks motivated to rebound after recent setbacks and long layoffs; Silva seeks to end a losing streak and stabilize his UFC trajectory.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Claudio Puelles: -112, Joaquim Silva: -108 Joaquim Silva ★★★☆☆ 62%
Spread Claudio Puelles -3.5: +140, Joaquim Silva +3.5: -195 Joaquim Silva +3.5 ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under Over 2.5 rounds: -140, Under 2.5 rounds: +110 Over 2.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 68%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Joaquim Silva -4%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 2.5 11%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Joaquim Silva by Decision

Predicted Score: Joaquim Silva wins via 3-round decision


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