Match Analysis: Jim Crute vs Ivan Erslan – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-27
• Time: 4:15 AM UTC
• Location: RAC Arena, Perth, Australia

Game Overview

Jim Crute, a proven UFC light heavyweight ranked contender with a solid wrestling base and finishing ability, faces Ivan Erslan who is making his UFC debut and seeking his first promotional win after mixed results in other promotions.

Key Factors to Consider

• Crute holds a 13-4-2 record with recent struggles but better UFC experience and high finishing upside; Erslan is 14-5-0 with one no contest and has yet to secure a UFC victory, showing promising but less proven form.
• No previous head-to-head matchups between Crute and Erslan exist.
• No publicly reported injuries for either fighter leading into this bout.
• Fight occurs in Crute's hometown of Perth, Australia, which may give him a psychological and crowd advantage. Erslan is traveling to a hostile environment for his UFC debut.
• Crute looks to bounce back and assert position in the division; Erslan is highly motivated to secure his first UFC win and make a name on a big stage.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Jim Crute -185, Ivan Erslan +154	Jim Crute	★★★☆☆ 62%
Spread	Jim Crute -7.5 -115, Ivan Erslan +7.5 -115	Jim Crute -7.5	★★★☆☆ 58%
Over/under	Over 1.5 -135, Under 1.5 +105	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Jim Crute -4%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 23%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 23% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21.9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Jimmy Crute to win via moneyline

Predicted Score: Jim Crute wins by decision or late finish within 3 rounds

Match Analysis: Jim Crute vs Marcin Prachnio – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-07-19
• Time: 2:00 AM UTC
• Location: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans

Game Overview

Jimmy Crute faces Marcin Prachnio in a Light Heavyweight bout at UFC 318. Crute holds a younger profile with a record of 12-4-2, while Prachnio is the more experienced 37-year-old with a 17-8-0 record. Both fighters have comparable reach and weight, and similar striking accuracy, but Prachnio is slightly more active in significant strikes landed per minute.

Key Factors to Consider

• Crute has shown strong all-around skills with good striking accuracy (53%) and solid defense (42% strikes blocked). Prachnio lands more significant strikes per minute (5.57) and is a slightly better defender (54% strikes blocked). Crute’s recent form includes a majority draw in his previous fight, suggesting slight volatility. Prachnio has a longer career but may be impacted by age.
• No prior head-to-head fights reported between Crute and Prachnio.
• No reported injuries for either fighter going into this bout.
• The fight takes place at a neutral venue in New Orleans, which likely has no significant home advantage. Both fighters appear motivated by career advancement at UFC 318.
• Crute aims to rebound and improve after a recent draw, while Prachnio looks to capitalize on experience to extend his win record. Crute is younger, potentially giving him physical advantages in endurance and recovery.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Crute -325, Prachnio +260	Jim Crute	★★★★☆ 74%
Spread	Crute -3.5 -195, Prachnio +3.5 +140	Jim Crute -3.5	★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds +124, Under 2.5 rounds -160	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Jim Crute -5%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 6%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Jimmy Crute to win by decision

Predicted Score: Jim Crute wins by decision, 3 rounds